TWO MONTHS after president Lech Kaczynski died in a plane crash in Russia, his twin brother Jaroslaw is close to succeeding him tomorrow as Poland’s head of state.
Final opinion polls place the national conservative Mr Kaczynski neck-and-neck with his liberal-conservative rival Bronislaw Komorowski after an undecided first round two weeks ago.
Likely to swing tomorrow’s vote are the same young Poles who voted Mr Kaczynski out as prime minister in 2007 after two controversial years in office. This time, however, many want him back in.
At the Kaczynski campaign headquarters opposite Warsaw’s presidential palace, many young volunteers say they felt drawn to the Law and Justice (PiS) Party by “the catastrophe”, the agreed name for the April plane crash that killed president Kaczynski, his wife and over 90 members of Poland’s political establishment.
“More and more young people are coming to PiS because they want to help and get involved in political life,” said Jacek Miketa, a 21-year-old law student and member of the party’s youth forum.
“In the last months we’ve had dozens of young people – that’s a lot. They like the fact that Kaczynski is a distinct politician with a clear plan and that he is independent.”
During two years as prime minister, Mr Kaczynski led a bad-tempered crusade against post-communist corruption, while picking emotional fights with neighbours, notably Germany.
Since burying his brother, however, he has presented himself as a conciliatory figure anxious to unite the country.
For some returned emigrants, that has obscured memories of the negative international headlines his government once attracted. For many young people who never emigrated, meanwhile, Mr Kaczynski is an attractive, if emotional, choice.
“Young people, particularly in smaller towns, are more conservative and can have an emotional attitude to the tragedy, that voting for Kaczynski is about holding together the Polish community at this time,” said Agnieszka Lada of Warsaw’s Institute for Public Affairs.
Many young voters unimpressed by Mr Kaczynski are equally unimpressed with his rival Mr Komorowski, whom they see as more conservative than liberal.
“They may not turn out to vote at all because many are on holidays or enjoying the weather,” says Ms Lada. “Back in 2007 it was the huge negative motivation against PiS and Kaczynski that got PO (Civic Platform) to power.”
In a lacklustre campaign, Mr Komorowski has promised to end years of stand-off between president and parliament that stalled reforms.
The Kaczynski camp has presented their man as the candidate of the little man and have warned that Mr Komorowski will rubber-stamp PO spending cuts and privatisation plans.
That has left Mr Komorowski struggling to convince voters he can maintain a critical distance to his party colleagues in the PO government.
“Komorowski will be a typical notary,” said 29-year-old Michal Jakubaszek, also a PiS youth forum member.
