FIANNA Fail and the Progressive Democrats hold a lead of 12 percentage points over the three Government parties in the first Irish Times/MRBI opinion poll conducted since the calling of the general election last week. However, the two coalition combinations still have all to play for in the campaign.
The publication of the party manifestos, dominated by promises of £1.5 billion in tax cuts, has had little impact on the level of undecided voters. They stand at 16 per cent, down one point since the last Irish Times/MRBI poll two weeks ago.
The state of the parties, excluding the undecideds, is: Fianna Fail 43 per cent, no change; Fine Gael 26 per cent, no change; Labour 10 per cent, down two points; Progressive Democrats 7 per cent, down one point; Democratic Left 2 per cent, no change; Green Party 3 per cent, no change; and Others 9 per cent, up three points, including Sinn Fein 2 per cent, up one point.
The Government has halved the gap with the Fianna Fail/PDs alliance on the choice to form the next coalition. Some 44 per cent of voters, the same as a fortnight ago, would prefer to see a Fianna Fail/PDs government, while 38 per cent, an increase of six points, would choose a Fine Gael/ Labour/DL coalition.
Some 8 per cent of voters, a drop of three points, would prefer neither combination. Some 10 per cent, also a drop of three points, are undecided.
The closing of the gap, from 12 points to six points, on the preferred coalition combination, coupled with an increase of five points in the level of satisfaction with the Government in two weeks are the main indicators that the result of the election is still open.
The Irish Times/MRBI poll, the first to be conducted since the dissolution of the 27th Dail last Thursday, was conducted among a national quota sample of 1,000 electors at 100 sampling points throughout all constituencies on Monday and Tuesday, before the publication of the Labour Party manifesto.
It is the first poll to assess the impact of the alternative governments tax packages. The results indicate they largely cancel each other out.
The poll shows that 54 per cent of voters, an increase of five points, are satisfied with the way the Government is running the country. The level of dissatisfaction with the Government has dropped to 37 per cent, down four points, in two weeks.
The Taoiseach, Mr Bruton, is recording a 55 per cent satisfaction rating, the same as on May 5th The rating for the Tanaiste, Mr Spring, is 47 per cent, down two points. The satisfaction level for the Minister for Social Welfare, Mr De Rossa, is 44 per cent up one point.
The rating for the Fianna Fail leader, Mr Bertie Ahern, is 60 per cent, up one point. The PDs leader, Ms Mary Harney, still holds the highest satisfaction rating of 64 per cent, unchanged in the last two weeks.
The poll shows very little shift in the core support of the various parties: Fianna Fail 36 per cent, unchanged; Fine Gael 22 per cent, unchanged; Labour 9 per cent, down one point; PDs 6 per cent, down one point; DL 2 per cent, up one point; Green Party 2 per cent, unchanged; Others 7 per cent, up one point; and undecideds 16 per cent, down one point.
There are, however, some gains and losses in the Dublin area, which is expected to be the cockpit of the election. The Fine Gael vote, excluding the undecideds, is 23 per cent, up three points. The Labour vote is 11 per cent, down one point. The PDs vote has dropped by three points to 9 per cent. The Green Party's vote has increased by one point to 5 per cent. The Fianna Fail vote remains unchanged at 39 per cent.
The first poll of the campaign installs Fianna Fail and the PDs as favourites to win the general election. However, the Government will be pleased that it has closed the gap with the alternative alliance to the level it was before the appearance by Mr Bruton and some of his Ministers before the Dunnes payments tribunal.
