ANALYSIS:There is a wide difference of opinion between public service and private sector
A MAJORITY of those who expressed a view are in favour of abandoning the Croke Park agreement which protects public servants from further pay cuts, according to the Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll.
Asked whether the agreement on pay and productivity in the public service should be abandoned or not, 44 per cent say it should be abandoned, 24 per cent say it should not and 32 per cent did not know.
There is a wide difference between public servants and those employed by the private sector on the issue. Among public servants 42 per cent say the agreement should not be abandoned, while 36 per cent say it should, with 22 per cent undecided. Workers employed outside the public sector favour abandoning the agreement by 54 per cent to 19 per cent with 27 per cent undecided.
Among people working in the home 39 per cent said they did not know, 38 per cent say the agreement should be abandoned and 23 per cent say it should not.
Fine Gael supporters are most strongly inclined to the view that the agreement should be abandoned, while Labour voters are the most strongly in favour of it being continued, although a majority of Labour voters who expressed a view want to see it abandoned.
Fifty-three per cent of Fine Gael voters say it should be abandoned and 22 per cent say it should not. Among Labour voters 45 per cent say it should be abandoned while 31 per cent say it should not.
Fine Gael and Labour voters also have different views on who should be taoiseach if the two parties form the next government.
Among the wider electorate Labour leader Eamon Gilmore is the clear choice for taoiseach and this is even more pronounced among Labour voters who favour him by a margin of 81 per cent to 11 per cent.
Among Fine Gael voters Enda Kenny is the favourite for the position by a narrower margin of 63 per cent to 21 per cent.
Among supporters of all other parties Gilmore comes out well ahead of Kenny. The Labour leader has a much bigger lead among public service workers than those employed in the private sector or working in the home.
In regional terms Gilmore is strongest in Dublin and weakest in Connacht-Ulster, where he is behind Kenny. In age terms the gap between the two men is narrowest among 18-24-year-olds while in social categories
Kenny does best among farmers and the AB voters. Among voters who say they are definitely not going to change their minds Kenny’s score improves to 33 per cent.
On the question of the Fianna Fáil leadership the change in sentiment since September has been significant but there is a considerable difference in the attitude of Fianna Fáil voters and the wider electorate.
In the general public there has been a big shift in opinion since the last poll when Brian Lenihan had a commanding lead over all potential rivals and was more than two to one ahead of his nearest rival, Micheál Martin.
Now Martin has moved into a narrow lead on 28 per cent with Lenihan on 25 per cent and
Mary Hanafin on 12 per cent. Dermot Ahern, who was included in the last poll, has since announced that he is retiring from politics.
However, among Fianna Fáil voters Lenihan still has a big lead with 47 per cent of them backing him compared to 29 per cent who support Martin and 8 per cent who opt for Hanafin.
Green Party voters favour Lenihan by a narrow margin but among supporters of all other parties and Independents Martin is in the lead.
Martin is well ahead in Munster while Lenihan is in the lead in Dublin and also in Connacht- Ulster; the two men are level in the rest of Leinster. Hanafin has gained support since the last poll but is still in third place.
She does much better among women, where she has twice the level of support as among the male population. She also has strong support among AB voters.
On the question of whether Brian Cowen should lead Fianna Fáil into the election there has been no great change since the last election with a big majority wanting to see him step down.
Only among Fianna Fáil voters does Cowen receive significant support for staying on with 58 per cent of party supporters saying they would like to see him leading into the election and 35 per cent saying they would like to see him stepping down.
