FINE GAEL could expect to take 71 seats in the general election, up 20 on the outgoing Dáil, if the predictions made constituency- by-constituency by Irish Times reporters are borne out cumulatively in tomorrow’s election.
Labour at 31 (up 11) could comfortably provide a coalition government a Dáil majority (which is 84 seats).
The constituency notebook tally suggests 33 seats for Fianna Fáil (down from 73, including Ceann Comhairle Séamus Kirk), with Sinn Féin almost tripling its seats from five to 14, Independents and others doubling to 16 and the Green Party holding only one of its six seats, Trevor Sargent’s in Dublin North.
Fine Gael is predicted to take three seats in five of the 43 constituencies – Carlow-Kilkenny, Clare, Cork South Central, Dublin South and Mayo – and two in 19. Fianna Fáil retains no three-seater strongholds and in only three constituencies retains two seats (one being Séamus Kirk’s). In 13, the party will take no seats.
Labour is expected to take two seats in three constituencies while there are 15 in which it will take none. The United Left Alliance could take three seats, while Independents are expected to win two seats in two constituencies.
To paraphrase warnings on adverts for financial products, estimates may fall as well as rise in a campaign that has seen such swings in public mood.
