REVOLVER:Goodness, the bookies are already offering odds on who will be on this year's Mercury Music Prize shortlist for the best British and Irish albums of the last 12 months. The list of the 12 nominated acts isn't released until next Tuesday, but it's safe to assume that this will be the year of the solo female artist. Expect Little Boots, La Roux, Bat for Lashes, Florence and The Machine and even Lily Allen to be there or thereabouts next week.
Aside from the token classical/ folk/jazz picks (to fulfil some musical quota system, no doubt); you can also expect three or four out of Glasvegas, The Leisure Society, Kasabian, Noisettes and Friendly Fires.
Even though the award encompasses records released in Ireland, there have only been a handful of nominations from here over the years, though Lisa Hannigan is in with a very good chance of making the list for Sea Sew.
The Mercury people say there have been a record amount of entries this year, reflecting the fact that the award now has a huge media presence. Acts that make it onto the list can expect soaring album sales.
Previously somewhat in the margins, last year’s winners Elbow went on to win a Brit Award and an Ivor Novello award following their success. Instead of being regulated to night-time radio plays, they were suddenly all over daytime radio and playing the sort of venues that would have been unimaginable before winning the Mercury.
Elbow recorded a 688 per cent increase in album sales after their win, with Seldom Seen Kidgoing from No 54 to No 7 in the album charts within the space of a week. Other nominated acts, such as Burial (who started at a much lower sales base), reported a 1,000 per cent increase in sales.
This is probably why there’s a good deal of secrecy about who actually judges the Mercury. It is known that the panel is drawn from musicians, industry insiders, journalists and “other figures in the music business”, but rarely are names released.
It’s only in the past few years that the Mercury has seriously affected sales. During the 1990s the award itself was in danger after becoming a bit of a curse. One winner, Roni Size, completely disappeared afterwards; another, Talvin Singh, was dropped by his label.
It seems odd to be predicting a winner even before the nominations have been announced, but I'm going for Doves and their Kingdom of Rustalbum. The Manchester band began as a dance act (Sub Sub), but when their studio burnt down they mutated into indie-prog under their current name.
Like Elbow, Doves are an unremarkably blokeish-looking band who don’t really chase media exposure. Both acts have been allowed to develop over a series of albums unburdened by a huge “hit” or label expectations. And both have that sort of wind- and rain-swept melancholia at their musical core.
What perhaps has held Doves back is their guilt-by-association with prog rock. Expect all that to change come Tuesday, when the music media (always easily led) will begin a sudden love affair with indie prog.
In Doves' favour, Kingdom of Rustis, despite being a quality work from the first note to last, largely unheralded. It is still there to be "discovered" by music buyers, just like The Seldom Seen Kidlast year.
Like almost everything in the music industry, it’s all about perception. And the perception of Doves at the moment is of a band on the sidelines waiting for their “come on down” call into the spotlight.
Doves will begin their slow march next week. And if you haven't already got Kingdom of Rust, best go out and get it this weekend before the bandwagon takes off at speed.
