The financial markets are in a state of suspended animation ahead of the Brexit vote. It would be a mistake to feel that this relative calm is a sign of what might happen if Britain voted to leave. So far, most market analysts and investors have been guarding themselves against a possible Brexit, but still believing that – on balance – it won’t happen.

The last week will have given them serious pause for thought. Poll after poll has shown gains for the Leave side. Most “poll of polls” now show Leave with a slight lead, though there remains much argument about the validity of the different polls, who is likely to actually vote and how the “don’t knows” will vote on the day.

In contrast to the polls, the bookies still favour Remain, but the odds have closed rather sharply over the last week. Ten days ago, bookies were reported saying that some 80 per cent of the money was going on Remain. This was reflected in odds showing a probability of some 78 per cent of Britain voting to stay. Over the last week, serious money has gone on Leave, with the odds now on offer implying about a 60 per cent chance of a Remain vote, down 18 points in just a week.

If this momentum continues, we are going to see some more market nervousness and volatility, even before a vote is cast next Thursday.

One of the conundrums is that there is some debate about what Brexit would mean for assets such as equities and bonds. But sterling could certainly be in the firing line and the expectation that a Brexit would hit growth in Britain and across Europe and lead to further uncertainty will not be good for equity markets. In bond markets, while Irish yields remain low, we have seen the gap between them and core German yields spreading a bit.

In the week ahead, investors will be watching the polls closely. But they will also be watching the bookies. If the momentum we have seen over the past week continues, and the odds narrow further, then we will really see what the market thinks of Brexit. And it is not likely to be pretty.