Premier Lotteries should be careful. The most striking point of the National Lottery operator’s argument this week for banning bookies from offering bets on its draws is how few punters would switch. A report by consultants Indecon for the company shows that only one in three of those who bet with their bookies would instead play the lottery if the Oireachtas banned the practice.
People bet and play the lottery to win money. The conversion rate is low because bookies offer a better chance of winning. On the basis of advertised odds, they return about 88 to 90 cent in the euro in winnings to customers on most lottery bets.
According to Premier’s 2024 annual report, lottery games returned 57 cent of every euro in sales to players in winnings. Of the €289 million revenue that the company believes it would gain, customers would have “won” €164.73 million in 2024, against a €254.32 million to €260 million return from bookies.
Unlike the lottery, bookies allow you bet on just one number appearing in a draw. They generally offer 6/1, while the probability is closer to to 8/1. Some offer 40/1 if you pick the bonus number, where the real odds are 46/1. Those margins range from almost 11 per cent to slightly more than 12.6 per cent.
Any hardened punter will tell you that those margins are not great value, but they are vastly better than Premier’s 43 per cent. Granted, bookies limit winnings to a maximum of €1 million, whereas the lotto pays out millions if you hit the jackpot. But it’s likely those betting on it believe they will do better picking one number than backing a 10.7-million-to-one chance.
Bookies bore the Gambling Regulation Act’s passage with good grace despite pronounced political antipathy to their industry. They will not be so amenable this time. Any debate will prompt them to highlight the better value they offer, potentially costing the National Lottery business. If Premier wants more players, it should look at the value it offers instead of asking legislators to insulate it from legitimate competition.
