Donald Trump is back. Does volatility lie ahead?
Short-lived market spasms appear likely. The euro and other major currencies rallied after Trump began his presidency with some mild tariff commentary, only to sell off hours later following more hostile trade talk.
Companies, too, are vigilant. At the World Economic Forum in Davos, JPMorgan’s Mary Erdoes said it has set up a “war room” to absorb the slew of new policies, with reports of similar operations at Bank of America and Citigroup.
In 2017, bond investor Bill Gross said Trump’s threatening of companies on Twitter (now X) was like something from Mussolini’s Italy. Executives are unlikely to be so blunt today, but they are preparing for unpredictability.
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The current mood is evident in the World Uncertainty Index. It shows global uncertainty is rising, while being well short of the dramatic heights seen during Trump’s first administration – for now at least.
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