Downcast Wales unlikely to trouble even second-string All Blacks

The Nations Championship organisers inform us that the rivalry between the northern and southern hemispheres is more competitive in the modern era.

Since 1905, there have been 1,062 fixtures between the participating Nations Championship sides, with Southern Hemisphere teams having won 603 of those fixtures, or 56.8 per cent of them, and the Northern Hemisphere having amassed 427 wins, 40.2 per cent of the fixtures.

However, since 2021, this is currently the most competitive era of the North v South rivalry, “with the period being the first in which the North has had the ascendancy over the South since the early 1900s”.

Alas, it certainly won’t feel like that in the Principality Stadium when Wales host New Zealand this Saturday (kick-off 2.10pm). Since Wales last beat the All Blacks in 1953 New Zealand have won 34 consecutive encounters.

Matt Williams: Embracing your country’s unique DNA is crucial in international rugby

Springboks battle looms large in Andy Farrell’s selection for Fiji clash

Simon Zebo says he would have enjoyed playing more in today’s game

There has been a remarkable similarity to the last three meetings, all of them in Cardiff, in 2021, 2022 and 2025. New Zealand’s winning margins have been 54-16, 55-23 and 52-26. Very often, Wales have been very competitive for the first 50 or 60 minutes before fading and thus allowing the All Blacks to pull away.

Most likely, this pattern will likely be repeated, and it says everything about the perceived threat which Wales pose that Dave Rennie has made 10 changes to the starting XV which beat Scotland 43-21 last week.

Paddy Power rate Wales as 32-point underdogs, or 20-1 to win, with the All Blacks at 1-40 to win. Rarely has Welsh rugby been so downcast.

Speaking on the For The Love of Rugby podcast with former England internationals Ben Youngs and Dan Cole, former Wales and Ireland coach Warren Gatland said: “With a small playing nation you are always going to have your troughs and your peaks as well. They are going through a trough at the moment and it is going to take some time.

“If I am really brutally honest there’s probably some players that I would class as being good, reasonable regional players but some of them are not quite international level. You just hope that some others are going to come through.”

Gatland laid the blame squarely at the feet of the WRU for reducing investment in their pathway.

“In 2015 for whatever reason – I think it was overdistributing more money to the regions – we got rid of the national academy,” he said.

“Before that our Under-20s had been successful. In our Under-20s campaigns we’d won Grand Slams but since 2017 Wales Under-20s haven’t finished above fourth in the Six Nations.

“I think the pathways that have been neglected with the regions’ academies. Losing the national academies has had a massive impact on the development of those players coming through from the Under-20s into the national team.

“It’s something they need to focus on and put the resources into at the moment with regards how important the pathway is for those younger players.”

Wales have won just five of 32 Tests. Photograph: Adrian Dennis/AFP via Getty

Beauden Barrett will play in his 149th Test, thus surpassing Richie McCaw in New Zealand’s all-time appearance list with only Sam Whitelock ahead of him on 153 Tests. Barrett will also captain New Zealand at Test level for the first time and has bigged up the Cardiff atmosphere.

Former Welsh outhalf turned pundit Jonathan Davies has admitted “there’s a big gulf in difference between the two sides. I’m not slagging the boys off. I’ve been in the same situation, I never beat New Zealand.

“You go in all guns blazing, trying to think you can win. Then you come up short. Again and again. Mentally, it’s tough. No one gives Wales a chance.

“But sport is littered with examples of giant-killing,” he added.

“My plea to the fans is get behind the players. Nobody wants to win more than they do and losing in the Welsh jersey in front of your own crowd is not nice, I can tell you.

“They’re not to blame for the s**t show in Welsh rugby. So we can’t give up on them. A good autumn will help them become a better team by the World Cup.”

But victory over Japan last week was just Wales fifth in 32 Tests since the 2023 World Cup, their other scalps being Georgia, Italy and Fiji. The WRU have been offering student tickets for £20 but the feeling is that anything above 60,000 will be a bonus.

Sad days.