No team had more players on international duty until last weekend, and hence no team has had a more disruptive build-up to this season’s Champions Cup, than Leinster. Yet all the signs are that Leo Cullen’s team again remain the most viable threat to the big French clubs.
Time was when plenty of other teams started the season with grandiose hopes, including Munster and Ulster, but that doesn’t seem to be the case any more. The French heavyweights Toulouse and La Rochelle have dominated this tournament in recent times, winning the last five finals. Never before in the history of the Champions Cup has one league provided the winners for five successive seasons.
Leinster may have lost three finals in a row, but more than anyone else they have gone toe-to-toe with Toulouse and La Rochelle in recent times. Indeed, both four and three seasons ago, Leinster were joined by three Top 14 sides in the semi-finals.
That said, there were distinct signs of a revival by Premiership sides last season when Northampton and Harlequins extended Leinster and Toulouse to home wins in the semi-finals.
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It stands to reason that when 13 Premiership clubs shrank into 10, and the best players either migrated to rival English clubs or to France, then standards would rise. And so that trend seems to have continued this season, with Johann van Graan’s methods at Bath giving them a power game up front to augment Finn Russell’s influences, while Pat Lam’s expansive ball-in-hand approach at Bristol has really taken hold.
Both are in Pool 2, the same as Leinster and La Rochelle, as well as Benetton and Clermont. This season’s format – comprising eight teams apiece from the URC, Top 14 and Premiership – is the same as last, with two teams from each of those leagues being divided into four pools of six.
Each team plays four teams from their rival leagues, with one game away to teams from each league and one game at home. So, for example, Leinster start away to Bristol and finish at home to Bath, while in between they host Clermont on Saturday week and visit La Rochelle in the new year.
The four highest-ranked clubs in each pool qualify for the Round of 16, and are ranked one to four, meaning the higher a team’s ranking, the more they are assured of home advantage in the knock-out stages.
The Champions Cup will again be restricted to eight weekends with four pool rounds followed by four knock-out rounds, culminating in the final which will be staged at Cardiff’s Principality Stadium on Saturday, May 24th.
The fifth-placed teams drop into the Challenge Cup knock-out rounds, joining 12 clubs from that competition’s pool stages as the ninth to 12th seeds, earning away ties with the fifth-to eighth-ranked sides from the pool stage.
Connacht, therefore, can realistically target home ties in the knock-out stages of the Challenge Cup as they have winnable home games in the pool stages against Zebre on Sunday and Lyon in January, albeit Perpignan’s Stade Aime Giral remains a Catalan hotbed, with Perpignan winning four of their last five there.
The bookies’ Champions Cup odds reflect those aforementioned trends. Toulouse, with Romain Ntamack back from injury, sit atop the Top 14 despite Ugo Mola consistently juggling their huge resources, and are again favourites.
Leinster are second favourites, with Ronan O’Gara’s La Rochelle next in the betting followed by Bordeaux-Begles, albeit there are plenty of dark horses, be they the freewheeling English clubs, Glasgow or the South African sides, depending on how the fixtures fall for them and their ensuing selection strategies.
Pool 1
Bordeaux-Begles, Exeter Chiefs, Leicester Tigers, Sharks, Toulouse and Ulster
This looks a tough draw for Richie Murphy’s Ulster. Save for letting slip a 19-0 lead in Cardiff before the international break, Ulster have pretty much extracted what they might have reasonably hoped for from the URC so far. But starting off with Sunday’s game away to Toulouse, the reigning Champions Cup and French championship title winners, this is a marked step up in class.
Viewed in that light, John Cooney’s hamstring injury sustained in last Friday’s 27-20 loss at home to Leinster is untimely and ditto Jacob Stockdale’s hamstring injury on his return for Ireland against Fiji. That denies Ulster their on-field conductor and prime finisher.
Unhelpfully, too, reports emanating from France suggest that Top 14 clubs are also interested in both the influential Ulster scrumhalf, as well as winger Stockdale.
Much of the focus with Toulouse is understandably on their array of stars, be it Antoine Dupont, Ntamack, and three of the world’s best fullbacks on their roster – Thomas Ramos, Juan Cruz Malia and Ange Capuozzo.
Yet this has been supplemented by a rich seam of young talent which galvanised the experienced players last season, be it Josh Brennan, the centre Paul Costes, Theo Ntamack or the brilliant French Under-20 captain and openside Mathis Castro-Ferreira.
As a result, Mola can rotate and keep them fresh on all fronts – so completing last season’s double by beating Bordeaux-Begles 59-3 in the French championship final seemingly as fresh as daisies at the end of a 38-game season, and five weeks after overcoming Leinster in extra-time in the Champions Cup decider in London.
Admittedly, Dupont won’t be excused duty from the French 15s this season and Toulouse have a testing trek to Durban to face the Sharks in the new year.
It is Ulster’s misfortune that on Saturday week they host Bordeaux-Begles, who exorcised those French final demons by beating Toulouse away this season and have won three of their last four to sit second domestically. Doubts remain about their tight five but not the potency of their stellar cast of backs.
Having been injured on his debut, Joey Carbery has made a successful return. He nervelessly landed the conversion with the last kick to earn a losing bonus point in Clermont, contributed a couple more after again replacing Mathieu Jalibert in their 37-29 win from 29-0 down in Vannes and played at fullback last week. The draw also looks kind for Bordeaux-Begles.
Ulster then face a trip to Michael Cheika’s Leicester, who have won five from seven to sit third in the Premiership. Murphy’s team will hope to be still standing when they visit Exeter in their pool finale as the Chiefs have lost seven from seven domestically.
Forecast: Bordeaux/Begles, Toulouse, Leicester and Sharks to qualify.
Pool 2
Bath, Benetton, Bristol, Clermont, La Rochelle, Leinster
It can’t be easy picking yourself up from the floor after a bitterly close defeat in the final of the competition you most desire – not once, not twice, but now a third time.
Yet Leinster have consistently outperformed all others in the pool stages over the last five seasons, topping their pool every time and winning 19 matches out of 19 on the pitch, 18 of them with attacking bonus points – the only exception being their gritty 16-9 win in a La Rochelle downpour last season.
The only ‘defeat’ came three seasons ago in the midst of the pandemic, when they were infuriated by the tournament organisers awarding Montpellier a 28-0 home win in round two.
Leinster go again with Jacques Nienaber more ensconced, a new backs coach in Tyler Bleyendaal and more uncertainty at 10, where the Irish coaching staff will be hoping Leinster trust in Sam Prendergast, though the 21-year-old has yet to start a Champions Cup match.
Leinster were also more inconvenienced by the Autumn Nations Series than anyone and begin away on Sunday against a Bristol side now playing the kind of instantly recognisable, ball-in-hand, total running rugby one would associate under Pat Lam, especially in his eighth season there.
It’s like watching Connacht in their pomp under Lam, hardly surprising with an in-form Kieran Marmion and AJ MacGinty reunited and pulling the strings. But it’s with an ever larger array of footwork and pacy, X-factor players, always pushing the pass, always varying the point of attack and using the full width of the pitch.
The Bears have scored the most tries (36) in the Premiership and have registered attacking bonus points in all seven games and sit second behind Leinster’s final pool opponents Bath, who start their campaign in another intriguing first-round match at home to La Rochelle.
Ronan O’Gara’s Champions Cup winners from 2022 and 2023 retain the core of those back-to-back, breakthrough sides, but the signs of weariness evident in their emphatic defeat by Leinster in the quarter-finals last season are showing this season.
Stalwarts such as Uini Atonio (34), Will Skelton (32), Levani Botia (34) and Tawera Kerr-Barlow (34) are well into their 30s and O’Gara appears to be facing something of a rebuilding job fairly soon, with Nolann le Garrec arriving next season.
La Rochelle have lost three of their last four to sit sixth. Along the way there was a 37-7 loss in Bayonne and a 16-0 defeat in Montpellier before their 16-match winning run at home came to a shock halt last weekend when beaten 23-14 by newly promoted Vannes from Brittany.
Then again, it could well be that this competition rocks their boat, for like their coach, they are a big-game team.
While not the force of yore, Clermont are on an upward curve after hitting the buffers before a new deal for Christophe Urios steadied things. Similarly, they still rely on some of their Kiwi old guard, Fritz Lee and George Moala, but have risen to third on the back of three successive wins, and host Benetton at the Stade Marcel-Michelin, where they are unbeaten this season, before facing Leinster in the Aviva next weekend.
Forecast: Leinster, Bath, La Rochelle and Bristol to qualify.
Pool 3
Bulls, Castres, Munster, Northampton, Saracens, Stade Francais
Whisper it, and it’s hard to countenance, but Munster are simply no longer the European contenders they once used to be. In the last five seasons, there has been one pool exit and three departures in the Round of 16, with one quarter-final when losing to Toulouse in a placekicking competition three seasons ago the summit of their achievements.
Even in the difficult teething years of Irish rugby, when Munster began with three successive pool exits, they reached the quarter-finals at the fourth time of asking and memorably advanced to the final at Twickenham against Northampton in 1999-2000.
Munster have reached the semi-finals or better 15 times since then, but not once in the last five years. Much of their fabled history and consistency in this competition was founded on their ability to make Thomond Park an impenetrable citadel.
But for the first time ever last season they failed to win one game there, drawing with Bayonne and losing to a 14-man Northampton, which condemned them to a last 16 tie in Franklin’s Gardens, when riddled with a virus and injuries.
They host Stade Francais in what already looks like a vital, must-win opener on Saturday evening with Graham Rowntree having departed and Chris Boyd hired as a consultant. They are boosted by the return of their six-strong Irish contingent, while Alex Nankivell, Shane Daly and Thaakir Abrahams all returned from injury in the scrappy win over the Lions.
Stade sit a point above the relegation playoff spot after a difficult start to the season as they’ve sought to add more flair to the strong defensive (Paul Gustard is the defence coach) and kicking game they employed last season.
But they have some good players, like new French fullback Léo Barré and Fijian Sevens gold medallist Ro Dakuwaqa, are match hardened and can rise to the occasion – witness their 40-24 win over Racing 92 in the Parisian derby two weeks ago, when they led 40-3 at the hour mark. Much will be indicated by their selection for their opener, but then again Munster can ill-afford the costly complacency of that draw against Bayonne in the corresponding game last year.
Munster have only a six-day turnaround before a tricky Friday night game away to familiar foes Castres, who have seemingly forever hovered above mid-table in the Top 14. They finished seventh under Jeremy Davidson last season and sit seventh at the moment despite being utterly pummelled by 54-10 in Clermont last week.
Despite qualifying regularly for the Champions Cup, Castres rarely seem to take much interest yet, as Munster know well, they can be particularly tricky at home, where they are unbeaten since March.
In January, Munster also renew acquaintances with three-time winners Saracens away and finish at home to Northampton, the reigning English champions who are probably in something of a false position in eighth and remain a well-coached side sprinkled with talent.
The Bulls add another dynamic to this unpredictable looking pool, especially when at home to Northampton and Stade Francais.
Forecast: Saracens, Northampton, Munster and the Bulls to advance.
Pool 4
Glasgow, Harlequins, Racing, Sale, Stormers, Toulon
As one suspected always might be the case, Stuart Lancaster appears to be facing all manner of difficulties amid the glitz and glamour of Racing 92, where things certainly aren’t the same as they were at Leinster.
Siya Kolisi has come and, prematurely, departed after an unsuccessful sojourn in Paris for the two-time World Cup-winning captain. The psychedelic Paris La Défense Arena was used as the swimming venue during this summer’s Olympic and Paralympic Games and will remain unavailable for rugby matches until October.
Until then, Racing have moved their games to the south-eastern suburb of Creteil, on the other side of Paris, and the 12,000-capacity Stade Dominique-Duvauchelle, renovated in 2004 after being built in the 1980s, and host to a fourth division football club. All the while, Lancaster’s predecessor Laurent Travers, is the club president.
Owen Farrell still seems to be adapting to life in his new surrounds and although they at least showed some pride in scoring three consolation tries in the last quarter of their embarrassing defeat to Stade Francais, last week they lost at home to Toulouse to sit eighth.
Toulon, by contrast, have responded to a 57-5 loss away to Toulouse when understrength with three successive wins to move to fourth, in the process extending their unbeaten home record at the Stade Felix Mayol this season and winning in Perpignan, which is no easy task.
They have been slowly but steadily rebuilding in the last few years, Kyle Sinckler and Dave Ribbans have swelled their ranks, Charles Ollivon remains a brilliant go-to man, as does Baptiste Serin and Paolo Garbisi.
Depending how seriously they take the competition, the Stormers could be a threat and will be particularly difficult for Toulon and Sale in Cape Town, but this seems to be down their list of priorities.
Harlequins remain an enigma, as evidenced by their 48-28 loss at home to Bristol last weekend. But their high-wire brand of rugby took them to the semi-finals last season and they start away to Racing, which looks pivotal for both, and at home the Stormers.
As the reigning, in-form URC champions, Glasgow look well capable of at least winning both home games against Sale and Racing, while raising the pulses away to Toulon and Harlequins.
This pool could be wild.
Forecast: Toulon, Glasgow, Harlequins and Stormers to advance.
Champions Cup fixtures (all times Irish)
Round 1
Friday, December 6th
Pool 2: Bath v La Rochelle, 8.0 (Premier Sports 1)
Saturday, December 7th
Pool 2: Clermont Auvergne v Benetton, 1.0; Pool 1: Sharks v Exeter Chiefs, 1.0 (Premier Sports 2); Pool 3: Northampton Saints v Castres Olympique, 3.15 (Premier Sports 2); Pool 4: Stormers v Toulon, 3.15; Pool 3: Munster v Stade Francais, Thomond Park, 5.30 (RTÉ 2 & Premier Sports 1); Pool 3: Saracens v Bulls, 5.30 (Premier Sports 2); Pool 4: Glasgow Warriors v Sale Sharks, 8.0 (Premier Sports 2); Pool 4: Racing 92 v Harlequins, 8.0.
Challenge Cup, Round 1: Connacht v Zebre Parma, Dexcom Stadium, 8.0 (Premier Sports 1)
Sunday, December 8th
Pool 1: Bordeaux-Bègles v Leicester Tigers, 1.0; Pool 1: Toulouse v Ulster, Stade Ernest Wallon, 3.15; Pool 2: Bristol Bears v Leinster, Ashton Gate, 5.30.
Round 2
Friday, December 13th
Pool 4: Sale Sharks v Racing 92, 8.0 (Premier Sports 2); Pool 3: Castres Olympique v Munster, Stade Pierre-Fabre, 8.0 (Premier Sports 1).
Saturday, December 14th
Pool 3: Bulls v Northampton Saints, 1.0 (Premier Sports 2); Pool 1: Ulster v Bordeaux-Bègles, Kingspan Stadium, 3.15 (Premier Sports 2); Pool 2: Leinster v Clermont Auvergne, Aviva Stadium, 5.30 (RTÉ 2 & Premier Sports 1); Pool 1: Leicester Tigers v Sharks, 5.30 (Premier Sports 2); Pool 2: La Rochelle v Bristol Bears, 8.0 (Premier Sports 1); Pool 4: Harlequins v Stormers, 8.0 (Premier Sports 2).
Sunday, 15 December 15th
Pool 2: Benetton Rugby v Bath, 1.0; Pool 3: Stade Francais v Saracens, 1.0 (Premier Sports 2); Pool 4: Toulon v Glasgow Warriors, Stade Felix Mayol, 3.15 (Premier Sports 2); Pool 1: Exeter Chiefs v Toulouse, 5.30 (Premier Sports 2).
Challenge Cup, Round 2: Perpignan v Connacht, Stade Aime Giral, 1.0.
Round 3
Friday, January 10th
Pool 4: Glasgow Warriors v Racing 92, 8.0.
Saturday, January 11th
Pool 4: Stormers v Sale Sharks, 1.0; Pool 1: Exeter Chiefs v Bordeaux-Bègles, 3.15; Pool 1: Sharks v Toulouse, 3.15; Pool 3: Munster v Saracens, Thomond Park, 5.30 (RTÉ 2); Pool 3: Stade Francais v Northampton Saints, 5.30; Pool 1: Leicester Tigers v Ulster, Welford Road, 8.0; Pool 3: Castres Olympique v Bulls, 8.0.
Challenge Cup, Round 3: Connacht v Lyon, Dexcom Stadium, 8.0.
Sunday, January 12th
Pool 4: Toulon v Harlequins, 1.0; Pool 2: La Rochelle v Leinster, Stade Marcel Deflandre, 3.15; Pool 2: Bristol Bears v Benetton Rugby, 3.15; Pool 2: Bath v Clermont Auvergne, The Rec (5.30pm).
Round 4
Friday, January 17th
Pool 1: Ulster v Exeter Chiefs, Kingspan Stadium, 8.0.
Challenge Cup, Round 4: Cardiff v Connacht, Cardiff Arms Park (8pm).
Saturday, January 18th
Pool 3: Bulls v Stade Francais, 1.0; Pool 3: Northampton Saints v Munster, Franklin’s Gardens, 3.15; Pool 2: Clermont Auvergne v Bristol Bears, 3.15; Pool 2: Benetton Rugby v La Rochelle, 5.30; Pool 2: Leinster v Bath, Aviva Stadium, 5.30 (RTÉ 2); Pool 4: Harlequins v Glasgow Warriors, 8.0; Pool 4: Racing 92 v Stormers, 8.0.
Sunday, January 19th
Pool 1: Bordeaux-Bègles v Sharks, 1.0; Pool 3: Saracens v Castres Olympique, 3.15; Pool 1: Toulouse v Leicester Tigers, 3.15; Sale Sharks v Toulon, 5.30.
Round of 16
April 4th-6th
Quarter-finals
April 11th-13th
Semi-finals
May 2nd-4th
Final
Saturday, May 24th, Principality Stadium, Cardiff.
Betting
7-4 Toulouse
5-2 Leinster
6-1 La Rochelle
13-2 Bordeaux
12-1 Bulls
16-1 Northampton
17-1 Saracens
25-1 Racing 92, Bath, Munster, Toulon
30-1 Glasgow, Sharks
33-1 Stade Francais
40-1 Exeter Chiefs
70-1 Stormers, Harlequins
75-1 Clermont, Sale Sharks
125-1 Ulster, Leicester
150-1 Bristol
225-1 Castres
275-1 Benetton Treviso
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