Once the budget is out of the way after October 6th, the Government plans to introduce legislation to abolish the triple lock, the provision which requires not just approval of the Dáil and Government but also a UN resolution before Irish troops can be sent abroad.
The plan is to remove the requirement for UN approval, which the Government says is necessary because deadlock on the UN security council will prevent any future UN peacekeeping missions. For instance, the long-running Irish presence in Lebanon will come to an end when the UN mandate runs out later this year.
Under the law as it stands, it would be illegal for Irish troops to be part of an EU mission to replace the UN Unifil mission there, something which the EU’s external action force has proposed.
The Government will argue that removing the UN component of the triple lock would enable Ireland to be part of such peace missions, while they would still need a vote of the Dáil.
RM Block
Opponents of the move, with all Opposition parties united on the question, have vowed to fight the move, while pro-neutrality campaigners are likely to make their views heard on the streets.
The evidence of Friday’s poll suggests the public is inclined to keep the triple lock – with 44 per cent in favour of keeping it and 34 per saying remove it – though the large number of don’t knows (22 per cent) suggests that the public has not definitely made its mind up. These numbers have hardly shifted since February, when the question was last asked.
There is, however, strong backing among the public for retaining Ireland’s “current model of neutrality”; 68 per cent of respondents agree, an increase of five points since the question was last asked in April of last year. Less than a quarter of voters (24 per cent) agreed that they would like to see Ireland’s model of neutrality change “so that Ireland can take more responsibility for our own and Europe’s defence” – also a decline of five points since last year.
Voters are quite content with the Irish model. Whether that model is sustainable in a world where Ireland’s EU partners feel increasingly threatened by Russia and simultaneously unprotected by their traditional Nato ally the United States is another matter. There are clear signs that Ireland’s EU partners are not quite content with the Irish model – especially when they see Ireland benefiting from bulging public finances, while spending comparatively negligible amounts on defence.
[ Switzerland debates the meaning of neutralityOpens in new window ]
If neutrality enjoys overwhelming backing, the electorate’s attitude to relations with Donald Trump’s America is much more divided. Just about half of voters who expressed a preference (45 per cent of the total) say we should bite our lip and avoid public criticism of the Trump administration in order to maintain strong relations with the US. And just about half of them (46 per cent of the total) say we should speak out, even if that risks damaging Ireland’s relationship with the US. Nine per cent express no view.
The finding that the public is strongly in favour of at least a temporary moratorium on building data centres suggests difficulties ahead for the Government, which has backed the sector, deeming it essential for Ireland’s continuing attractiveness to the tech industry and therefore its future prosperity.
There is a growing grassroots movement internationally against the construction of giant data centres, which use vast amounts of electricity and water, especially in the United States. There have been some stirrings in Ireland.
With electricity prices likely to increase, the issue is unlikely to go away.
