Government housing plan under scrutiny as drumbeat of bad news continues

To say there is a drumbeat of bad news for the Government underplays the current situation when it comes to the years-long housing crisis.

Taoiseach Micheál Martin has acknowledged it is not just the biggest policy headache the Coalition faces, but the social crisis of a generation. And yet, every week brings more bad news.

On Monday, The Irish Times led with a report that average rents nationwide have reached €2,000 per month for the first time, climbing faster between January and March than at any point in the last 20 years.

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Inside, the newspaper reported that housing commencements have slumped to a near-decade low. The Irish Independent reported that mortgages are soaring in value as those who can buy are saddled with ever-increasing mountains of debt.

In the Irish Examiner, it seemed as though Minister for Housing James Browne was trying to generate a positive drumbeat of policy changes. There was reference to a State savings fund to give extra financial resources for building. Changes to rent pressure zones were flagged, while it was also indicated that the Coalition wants to overhaul the Land Development Agency.

Browne’s predecessor, Darragh O’Brien, was known to flood the zone with policy announcements. It was part of the political strategy he deployed to keep up a perception of progress and strength.

But O’Brien had one thing that Browne does not: while the day-to-day experience of the housing market was dire, at least the outgoing Coalition could point to increased housing output while claiming it had turned a corner.

That covered up for a lot of blushes as access and affordability worsened, as did the numbers in emergency accommodation. It has now reversed, with inaccurate projections of 40,000 homes in 2024 supercharging the sense of disillusionment. Trajectory is not something that Browne can point to and in truth, there is no optimism that the situation is going to improve soon.

The opposition, too, is wary of voters losing faith

One official, speaking privately last week, was downbeat about a draft of the Government’s new housing plan which they had seen. It comprises more lists of actions, more measurements, more solemn statements of resolve. But this person could see few grounds for optimism that things were going to improve in the next 12 months, or even the next two years.

After that, it becomes hard to model, but it is a simple fact that even if the Coalition was making the “right” interventions now, it has no real way of knowing.

Housing policy has a huge lag time between action and outcome – and even then, it’s hard to tell if the lever you pulled months or years ago is really the one having an impact on the market.

Housing plans, like housing ministers, have come and gone. It was Rebuilding Ireland under Simon Coveney, which was redrafted by his successor Eoghan Murphy. It was Housing for All under O’Brien. The constant has been the worsening crisis.

The Coalition is acutely aware of this. It is increasingly disturbed by it as a sense of dread around housing pervades. The opposition, too, is wary of voters losing faith in not just the ability of the Government to address the housing crisis, but mainstream politics in general.

The foregrounding of the housing crisis by far-right political agitators in their attacks on Government and opposition has not gone unnoticed.

As the electoral commission reported on Monday, there is a cohort of voters already drifting away, citing disinterest or disillusion.

The contest between the opposition and Government for these votes is afoot. They both are hoping to spark a sense of hope amid the dour outlook. Meanwhile, the diet of bad news continues.