At last Northern Ireland is having a political debate on whether the United Kingdom should remain a member of the European Union or leave.
The recent talks on power-sharing ignored the issue, even though a “Brexit” would, of course, have major consequences.
A seminar last week in Belfast saw Arlene Foster of the Democratic Unionist Party exchanging views with Minister for Foreign Affairs Charlie Flanagan. It symbolised a more relaxed readiness for public debate between two such representative figures.
Flanagan said the Brexit options ranged from deep uncertainty to more systematic economic and social disadvantage for the North.
The main question is just how bad the impact would be, whether on the Border, economics and trade or higher education. This reflects the actively engaged Irish Government position, which is now the most focused in the EU against the UK leaving.
Foster said she preferred to wait and see how the deeper reforms sought by UK prime minister David Cameron, which she supports, were delivered on in negotiations as a better third option than remaining or leaving.
She is less fazed by a Brexit, but open to more evidence- based debate on its potential impact.
In one notable exchange she said the money lost to the North from EU structural, peace support and agricultural funds could be compensated by the savings made in the UK’s annual EU contributions. Flanagan asked sceptically whether a Tory government would give that money to the North. The government could change, she replied.
She would not be drawn on the possible constitutional effects on the North were Scotland to opt for staying in the EU and leaving the UK.
“We are part of the UK as a nation state. Whatever it decides, it decides,” she said.
Immigration
Such questions and many others on constitutional, policy, trade, free movement and funding issues are also raised in an interesting briefing paper from the Centre for Democracy and Peace Building.
After a Brexit could Northern Ireland negotiate directly with Dublin on the Border, citizenship or travel arrangements? Might there be an Irish-British border at Belfast, rather than North-South border coinciding with the EU one (as was the case in the second World War)?
Since immigration is the crucial issue driving the No side of the Brexit debate, one must assume it would dominate policymaking if it wins.
The UK after a No victory led by English nationalism would be a cold place for Northern unionists.
It remains to be seen how far Northern parties are willing to address these questions. The DUP has an active sceptical wing overlapping with Ukip but its leaders are pragmatically alert to the dangers involved. The UUP will probably swing towards staying in the EU, the SDLP and Alliance more decidedly so.
Sinn Féin is expected to adopt a critically favourable approach, advocating a different type of Europe from within not without. Official Ireland needs a Northern Yes vote to bargain either way.
Strong campaign
A Danske Bank poll last June reported that 58 per cent were in favour of remaining in and 16 per wanting out, with a high 26 per cent “don’t knows”, especially among women, unemployed and younger voters. A strong campaign could mobilise usual non-voters – many now disillusioned liberals – for staying in.
The earlier Northern Ireland general election survey suggests Catholics are three times more in favour of the EU than Protestants, with 27 per cent of Sinn Féin voters and 52.4 per cent of DUP ones for leaving the EU. The recent joint BBC/RTÉ polling had 55 per cent in the North and 71 per cent in the Republic in favour of remaining in.
That poll showed 13 per cent in the North and 36 per cent in the South favouring unity in the short to medium term and 30 per cent and 66 per cent in their lifetime, reducing to 11 per cent and 31 per cent if voters pay extra taxes.
It is too easy – indeed it’s a mistake – to conclude that Irish unity is not on the agenda. Structural change in the UK arising from Scottish independence after a Brexit vote would change the debate and transform attitudes.
In that setting a study from Vancouver by German, Dutch and Canadian economists, Modelling Irish Unification, is remarkably optimistic. Based on experience from Germany and Korea they estimate the North would have seven times more gains in income per head than the South in a €35.6 billion boost for the island's economy over eight years.
Tax harmonisation, adopting the euro and public expenditure savings from rationalisation would have a really dynamic effect on the North, overcoming its present sub-optimal performance by giving it more competitive access to the global economy. pegillespie@gmail.com