One lesson we can learn from the war in Ukraine is that warfare itself is constantly evolving. When Putin’s invasion started we witnessed his armoured columns driving towards Kyiv and ending in smouldering ruins. Presumably Putin envisaged his tanks rolling into Kyiv utterly unscathed, just as Soviet tanks rolled in to Dubcek’s Prague in 1968 to restore Russian imperial hegemony.
Now we know that heavy super tanks are extremely vulnerable to cheap attack drones.
Likewise, many experts now believe that aircraft carriers are, like heavy battleships of the 20th century, extremely vulnerable to missiles, mines and sea drones. They may be as obsolescent as gunboats became in the era of colonial warfare – useful only against weak and unsophisticated opponents.
This brings into focus Ireland’s defence strategy. We are told that we are investing up to €500 million in a French long-range radar system. It is not clear what exactly we can do if that radar, once installed, warns us of any serious threats. Are we to have aircraft or anti-aircraft missile systems to defend our airspace from such threats?
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While our Defence Forces have very limited access and training for drones capable of use for forward observation, we do not appear to have any offensive armed drone capacity. Ukraine has demonstrated that drones, robots, sea drones, missiles and anti-missile defence systems are the future of military technology.
Ireland is hopelessly undefended as things stand. The recent review of the Defence Forces future is already seriously out of date. We need to radically review the potential roles which our Defence Forces can play.
For instance, would it be at all responsible to send Irish soldiers into foreign conflict zones on peacekeeping tasks or missions without massively increased drone warfare capacity and training?
Nor can we be complacent about future defence contingencies. Even if the Naval Service manages to recruit and retain adequate personnel, has it a credible set of seacraft? Has it a credible air support and marine helicopters service to carry out any complex security functions? Do we have any capacity to monitor and defend undersea cables, gas pipelines, and electricity interconnectors which are vital for our economy?
We hope that armed conflict in Northern Ireland is a thing of the past. But is hope enough? If constitutional issues in the North were to reignite violence for whatever reason, has this State the capacity to deal with threats to our security and infrastructure? People forget that during the Troubles a considerable threat existed to infrastructure in the Republic requiring military posts and patrolling.
Having run defence force numbers down dramatically and largely eliminated army reserves, one can ask where are the trained personnel to defend us from any paramilitary threat on this island. Closing barracks was excused as the “peace dividend” post-1998. But where could we base or train any army reserve sufficient for our needs? During the Troubles we had a full-time army of 10,000-12,000 soldiers and a part-time reserve (which undertook security duties) of 15,000 volunteer reservists. That no longer exists.
Our unarmed volunteer civil defence service has lost half its numerical strength in recent years. Volunteerism is neither respected not acknowledged in 21st century Ireland. We need only remember how the Garda Reserve has been treated.
We can vigorously debate oil prices, hydrocarbon duties, and data centres as hot political topics. But if, say, Russia hit our gas supply tomorrow by taking out the Moffat gas interconnector and distribution facility in Scotland, Ireland would collapse economically and socially.
Our energy insecurity needs urgent action. An article printed here last week suggested that even if Ireland decided to use small modular reactor (SMR) nuclear energy, it would take us until 2050 to implement that choice. The Swedes are going down the SMR road and it won’t take them until 2050 to implement their decision. Why are we so lethargic and complacent in response to energy insecurity and the climate crisis?
We can legislate to prohibit offshore gas drilling and to prohibit nuclear energy but positive infrastructure projects take us a quarter of a century unlike our forebears who built the Shannon hydroelectric scheme in four years.
Irish cybersecurity needs to be taken seriously. As energy demand is increasingly electrified, the economic and social threat to our society is growing – not shrinking.
In a Cabinet of 15 members with two ministers for finance, two for education and a variety of other departments, we need a full-time Minister for Defence in the broadest sense of that term who takes issues of resourcing and developing Ireland’s defence capacity seriously.
Our Defence Forces, such as they are, are loyal servants of the State and the people. Is their loyalty in any way reciprocated?
