By any measure, the Atlantic bedrock is breaking apart. The old certainties of US–European partnership – collective security, economic openness, shared liberal values – are falling away under the strain of American instability and extremism.
We are not witnessing a drift in the transatlantic alliance but its collapse. This poses acute dangers for Ireland.
The signs are unmistakable. The United States is consumed by culture wars, democratic decay and an ascendant populist nationalism that regards alliances as transactions, and multilateralism as weakness.
Meanwhile, Europe still clings to the illusion that it can muddle through – half-dependent on Washington’s security guarantee, half-committed to “strategic autonomy”. For small states like Ireland, this European drift is dangerous. It leaves us riding two horses that are now galloping in different directions.
DJ Carey sentencing for fraud charges postponed to Friday as court hears former hurler is in hospital
Remain calm, keep tone low: What experts advise if ‘doorstepped’ by the Burke family
John Collison seems to have missed a fundamental truth about Irish politics
Couple apply to build log cabin after failing to find rented home within €1,600 monthly budget
For 75 years, American power underwrote European peace and prosperity. Nato was a key instrument of that bargain: “to keep the Russians out, the Americans in and the Germans down,” as Lord Ismay famously quipped. But today’s United States is less guardian than reckless gambler.
Under Donald Trump’s first term, his disdain for collective defence and a rules-based global order undermined Nato and weakened multilateral institutions, but was held in check. That mindset is now in full sway – untrammelled and unchallenged in the Republican Party and breaking an 80-year-old bipartisan consensus.
Across the Continent, European leaders are beginning to whisper what they never imagined thinking
For the first time since the Marshall Plan, the US treats Europe as an unwelcome security burden and as an economic adversary rather than a partner. The weaponisation of interdependence is a consequence of this.
US policymakers increasingly see the EU’s regulatory power – on privacy, taxation, climate and digital markets – not as enlightened governance, but as a threat to American dominance. When Brussels sets standards, it limits Silicon Valley’s reach and Wall Street’s leverage. When Ireland enforces those rules, it is cast as an accomplice.
Nowhere are these contradictions more visible than in Ireland. Our economic model – anchored in foreign direct investment and the presence of US multinationals – has delivered extraordinary prosperity and hundreds of thousands of jobs – both direct and indirect. But it has also created a strategic pressure point.
A single presidential tweet or congressional outburst about “unfair Irish taxes” can send shock waves through sectors employing tens of thousands. Already, US rhetoric has hardened: Ireland is no longer praised as an agile gateway to Europe but condemned as a competitor luring American firms abroad.
At the same time, many of our European partners look askance at our soft-touch regulation of big US tech and finance. They see a state profiting from EU membership while bending the rules to accommodate Washington’s corporate giants. In a world where the US and EU are on divergent regulatory paths, that perception is more than cosmetic – it is existential. The uncomfortable truth is that Ireland cannot keep straddling both camps.
Across the Continent, European leaders are beginning to whisper what they never imagined thinking: Nato may no longer be fit for purpose. European security can no longer rely on an American guarantee that could vanish in a tweet.
The same logic applies to economics and technology. Whoever controls semiconductors, artificial intelligence, quantum computing and digital infrastructure will control the future. Europe must either build its own capacity or accept permanent subordination to others’ rules.
In defence terms, the EU’s “Strategic Compass,” the European Defence Fund and PESCO are small steps in that direction. Yet progress is slow. Political fragmentation and underinvestment persist.
For Ireland, this is not an abstract debate about Brussels bureaucracies; it is about survival in a world where small states get squeezed between giants. The strategic choice is not whether we like Europe more than America – it is whether we want to shape our destiny or have it shaped for us.
Ireland’s historic neutrality was born of necessity, prudence and principle. But in today’s environment, neutrality must evolve into a readiness to co-operate closely with Europe, while preserving independent judgment. That means:
- Deepening defence co-operation through EU frameworks – not to mimic great-power militarism, but to ensure that our security gaps do not become Europe’s vulnerabilities
- Diversifying trade and investment, reducing over-reliance on any single market. The US will remain crucial, but it cannot remain central
- Investing in European regulatory and technological sovereignty, so that standards on data, biotech, and AI reflect our values, not Washington’s or Beijing’s
- Strengthening democratic resilience against the co-ordinated disinformation campaigns that increasingly emanate from both Moscow and the American far right
The deeper challenge is psychological. Many of us remain emotionally wedded to a benign image of the United States – John F Kennedy’s America, not Trump’s. Yet that America is evaporating before our eyes. Protectionism and a distrust of Europe now run deep in Congress and the wider US public. Nostalgia can’t blind us to these new realities.
We also need honesty about Europe. Embedding ourselves more firmly in the EU can be seen not as a loss of sovereignty but as a redefinition of it. In a world of weaponised trade and algorithmic warfare, true sovereignty means capacity – the ability to act collectively, to defend interests, to shape outcomes.
Ireland has influence precisely because it is European. When we lead on climate finance, humanitarian law or recognition of Palestine, we do so as part of a broader European moral and institutional ecosystem. The stronger that ecosystem, the more room Ireland has to exercise principle.
What Ireland needs most is a foreign policy narrative that connects strategic necessity with civic imagination. Europe is not simply a market; it is the community that sustains our democracy, our legal order and our prosperity. If the US is entering an age of geopolitical mercantilism then, just as with Brexit, Europe must again be reinforced as our strategic home.
The coming decade will test that choice. If we cling to the old comfort of Ireland as some class of an “Atlantic bridge,” we risk finding there is no bridge left to stand on as the foundations on the far bank collapse. But if we place our weight more firmly in Europe – confidently, deliberately, and without apology – we can help build a Continent that speaks with one voice, defends its interests, and protects the open societies that make Ireland what it is.
Ireland cannot afford to be a spectator in this new global divide. We must be architects of a shared European future.
BenTonra, MRIA, is full professor of international relations at UCD School of Politics and International Relations, a Senior Fellow at the Azure Forum and a Director and Secretary (voluntary/non-remunerated) of the Irish Defence and Security Association (IDSA) CLG
