People throw their hands up in the air when talking of the annual get-together of almost 200 countries for the climate “conference of the parties” – the Cop. But there is a chance Cop31 in Turkey this year can be different.
Yes, Cops are close to being dysfunctional. “What’s the point of it?” many ask; especially those battered from trying to wrestle with the dynamics of a venue where 40,000-plus gather and multiple meetings take place almost on a 24-hour basis – with, invariably, weak outcomes.
Some Cops staged by the UN of late have taken place in petrostates with national delegations contaminated by fossil fuel lobbyists. This sticks in the craw of those at the climate activism end of the spectrum of delegates – and rightly so.
When political leaders depart early in the proceedings to allow negotiations to begin, a familiar pattern emerges. Political ambition is watered down behind closed doors.
A shroud of negativity is applied that says: the 2015 Paris Agreement commits us to do XYZ but it’s too hard, too soon; we need oil and gas to run our economies efficiently; carbon is counted the wrong way; prioritising renewables will undermine competitiveness and it’s too costly. The heavyweight stallers press brakes to the disadvantage of a large majority of countries, especially poorer, climate-vulnerable states.
Among those displaying the latest blend of climate denialism are big oil producers of the Middle East, notably Saudi Arabia; India; and Russia. The US (second in the global league table of greenhouse gas emitters) is mostly unhelpful. China hides behind the ruse that it is a developing country and not obliged like other rich superpowers – historically, the biggest emitters – though for some years it has been the worst carbon polluter.
Tackling what is probably already runaway climate change with all the injustices and havoc it brings for humanity is hard enough without distortions from these stallers – increasingly backed by right-wing populist leaders with Trumpian genes.
Their messaging is incessant: we need to scale up gas for energy security purposes; net zero is “stupid”, “toxic”, “means rising energy bills”; intermittent solar and wind with battery storage cannot be the sole guarantors of our energy supply.
Summer 2026 shows the climate crisis is no longer knocking at doors: it’s obliterating people and properties. Those unconvinced by its immediacy should note predictions that more than 450,000 people are projected to die from the additional heat brought by a huge El Niño (a natural weather phenomenon supercharged by human-induced global warming) in the next six months. This is a “postcard from our future”, pushing up temperatures to the level the climate crisis is projected to deliver in 20 years’ time.
Independent voices advocating scaled-up climate action, including Jennifer Morgan, Laurence Tubiana and Mary Robinson, who are fearless at raising their voices at Cops, wrote (with others) to the Financial Times recently, pointing the way forward:
“There is a way out of this hole: stop burning the fossil fuels that are heating the planet; protect the oceans and forests that regulate the planet’s temperature; and adapt our towns and cities. A secure planet and a functioning global economy require a stable climate.”
Accelerating the just energy transition, they added, would lay the foundations for “a less volatile world, help lower some risks of conflict, and allow better access to cheap energy and food”.
The Cop process is far from rudderless. Cop30 in Belém, Brazil, featured for the first time the need for a roadmap to abandon fossil fuels. Many countries, including Ireland, have committed since to generate plans to transition away from fossil fuels.
[ Cop30: Five things we learned from the Brazil climate summitOpens in new window ]
If this is given more momentum in Antalya, Turkey, and coupled with targets agreed at Cop28 to triple renewables and double energy efficiency by 2030, it will be a good day’s work.
A global roadmap must be backed by the most reliable database on where exactly every country is in the clean energy transition; on renewables, electrification, decarbonisation and adopting battery and grid technologies – the good column – as well as the bad: a breakdown on fossil fuel usage and imports, as well as exploration.
The other essential is an emergency mindset that means we move more quickly, applying what science is telling us; the need for net zero and more. It is about being braver in the face of those stallers. It also necessitates being honest about trade-offs in our collective interest; the pain before the pay-off.
It brings me to a critical question for all delegate countries. To paraphrase a famous rallying cry in an altogether different arena: where’s your f***ing courage?
The expletive indicates my personal desperation. I hope grit will stand out when the gavel falls at the end of Cop31.
Kevin O’Sullivan is an environmental commentator and consultant
