Markets greeted the end of the Iran conflict with relief, as energy prices retreated and investors moved on to more familiar concerns.
The settlement is widely seen as a major climbdown by the Trump administration, leaving Iran in a better position than it was before the war, and arguably reinforcing Tehran’s awareness of its leverage over global energy flows via the Strait of Hormuz for any future confrontation.
Not everyone had envisaged such an underwhelming finale. “One of the most one-sided wars in history that will end well for the US and the world,” said hedge fund manager Bill Ackman at the end of March.
He also praised Donald Trump in effusive terms, saying he would “go down in history as one of the greatest and most consequential presidents we have ever had”, whose “bold and consequential decisions” were made “for the benefit of future generations”, before concluding: “God bless our nation, our military and our president.”
One half-expected the statement to end with a chorus of “USA! USA!”
Stocktake will give Ackman his due in one respect: he was bullish at March 30th’s market bottom, saying it was “one of the best times in a long time to buy quality”.
As for the rest, financier Carl Icahn’s verdict from a 2013 on-air row with the famously self-assured Ackman still resonates: “I’d be happy if I could be as sure about one thing in my life as you are sure of everything”.
