Tell me about swing states
Most US states vote along similar lines most of the time in presidential elections, meaning much of the map can predictably be coloured in with red (Republican) or blue (Democrat) well in advance of the actual vote.
Alabama, for example, has backed a Republican in 11 straight presidential elections, with Jimmy Carter in 1976 the last exception. New York has voted Democrat every four years since 1984, with Ronald Reagan most recently turning the state red.
However, the electoral college votes delivered up by these predictable outcomes will not give either would-be president the 270 electoral college votes required to win an election. This means elections are largely decided by a small number of tight races in the so-called swing (or battleground) states.
This time around both parties are putting a major focus on winning over undecided voters in seven states.
Where are the 2024 swing states?
Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are considered the swing states this time. The polls put the gap between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump in these at less than a couple of percentage points, making the races too tight to call.
Pennsylvania, where Trump was the subject of an assassination attempt while campaigning earlier in the year, is the most valuable of these battlegrounds, with 19 electoral college votes, while Nevada, with six, holds the fewest.
The seven states account for a combined 93 of the 538 electoral college votes (17.3 per cent). But their outcomes will be central to deciding which candidate passes the target of 270 electoral college votes needed to succeed Joe Biden in the White House.
With results by state more important than the total number of votes secured nationally, the candidates are spending most of their time, and vast sums of money, trying to turn these seven their way.
Do the swing states change?
Yes, they do. In 2020, more than a dozen states were deemed to be battlegrounds with Florida, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin the main prizes among them.
The political map can change considerably between election cycles and a particular candidate may do better than another in a given state due to their policies, personality, where they are from, their choice of running mate and how they speak to its various demographics.
Florida was regarded as a swing state for much of the last 30 years. But a rapid growth in registered Republican voters in recent times, in a state where Trump has his Mar-a-Lago home, saw him win in 2016 and 2020 and has him ahead in the race this time, albeit not by a landslide.
Nevada, though not a huge prize, is a good example of a swing state, having voted Republican six times and Democrat six times in the last 12 elections. Arizona has voted Democrat only twice in that same period (Bill Clinton in 1996 and Biden in 2020), and while polling shows Trump competitive there, that could all change over the final weeks if one party or candidate does a better job of appealing to and mobilising voters.
US Election Explained: A series explaining the issues at the centre of the 2024 election, and how the votes will work
- How does the electoral college work?
- How do the Congressional elections work?
- Could the abortion debate decide the US presidency?
- How crucial is the issue of immigration in the election?
- What role will the economy play in the election?
- Listen to our Inside Politics Podcast for the latest analysis and chat
- Sign up for push alerts and have the best news, analysis and comment delivered directly to your phone
- Find The Irish Times on WhatsApp and stay up to date