The failure to make progress during weekend talks between Iran and the United States in Pakistan has increased the risk of a return to the war launched on Tehran by the US and Israel in February.
Each side has complained that the demands of the other team were “excessive”.
Among the issues under discussion in Pakistan was the reopening of the strategic Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 per cent of the world’s oil and liquefied gas flow. It was partially blocked by Iran after the war began.
The US has objected to Iran’s decision to impose a toll on ships transiting the strait to provide funds for postwar reconstruction.
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Washington has also exerted pressure on Iran to abandon regional allies – Lebanon’s Hizbullah and Yemen’s Houthis – as well as its nuclear programme.
Iran sought access to funds that have been frozen in foreign banks and relief from international sanctions. A request for reparations for war damage to its infrastructure is unlikely to be successful.
While Israel and the US claimed to have “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear sites in bombing attacks at Nantaz, Fordow and Isfahan last June, Tehran has argued it is within its international treaty rights to enrich uranium for power plant and medical uses.
The US insists on zero domestic enrichment and the export of Iran’s 440kg stockpile of enriched uranium.
The enriched uranium has, however, disappeared under the rubble of the Isfahan site where it was stored and would be very difficult to retrieve.
Donald Trump had suggested that Washington could impose a naval blockade on Iran if nuclear talks collapse.
This amounted to a dramatic comedown for the US president, who gave as his war aims Iran’s unconditional surrender, regime change, elimination of its nuclear potential and “obliterating” Iran’s missiles, launchers, drones, arms factories and navy.
The US has failed to secure Iran’s capitulation and effect regime change.
Iran’s conventional arsenal has been largely damaged or destroyed while Iran’s arms have been depleted through use.
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Although Israel and the US bombed and “obliterated” Iran’s three main nuclear facilities last June, the current campaign could prompt covert efforts by Iran to build nuclear weapons.
Such weapons were banned in a fatwa (religious ruling) as “un-Islamic” by Iran’s former supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was assassinated on the opening day of the war. His fatwa died with him.
