Middle EastAnalysis

Netanyahu has every reason to avoid a Gaza ceasefire

Israel has agreed to pause fighting in Lebanon, but a truce in Gaza remains in doubt

Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu; he has said a Gaza truce is now more likely. Photograph: AP
Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu; he has said a Gaza truce is now more likely. Photograph: AP
Mark Weiss's picture
Mark Weiss in Jerusalem
Wed Nov 27 2024 - 15:44

Outlining some of the reasons behind Israel’s decision to agree to a Lebanon ceasefire, prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu has cited the Iranian threat, the need to allow troops to rest and a requirement to replenish munitions.

“There were large delays in the supply of arms and munitions. That delay is about to be freed up soon. We will equip ourselves with advanced weapons that will protect the lives of our soldiers and will give us additional crushing strength to complete our missions,” he said.

“And, another reason for the ceasefire – severing the link between the theatres and isolating Hamas. From the second day of the war Hamas has been counting on Hizbullah to fight alongside it. With Hizbullah out of the picture Hamas remains alone in the war.”

US officials denied Israeli claims that Washington had threatened an arms embargo if Israel rejected the ceasefire deal or had threatened to refrain from using its veto at the United Nations Security Council to support Israel.

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Netanyahu argues that a Gaza truce is now more likely, and a Hamas official said on Wednesday that the organisation is ready for a “serious ceasefire and prisoner exchange agreement” in light of the Lebanon deal. However, Hamas still insists on an Israeli commitment to end the war and withdraw from Gaza – a non-starter as far as Israel is concerned.

Netanyahu claimed victory in his pre-recorded televised address to the Israeli public on Tuesday night but for many Israelis real victory can only come with the return of the 101 hostages who have been in captivity in Gaza for 418 days.

But while Netanyahu’s far-right coalition partners are willing to accept a withdrawal from Lebanon with a promise that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) will resume fighting in response to Hizbullah violations, they are not willing to compromise on Gaza.

The 2005 disengagement, when all 21 Jewish settlements in the Gaza Strip were evacuated, along with a full military withdrawal, remains an open sore for the religious right-wing camp. More than 700 families have signed up to “resettle” Gaza. Some are camped on the Gaza border, waiting for the green light to move. Such a development would require an IDF presence in Gaza.

This is the dream of Netanyahu’s coalition partners despite the fact that he himself describes such a vision as unrealistic.

A Gaza ceasefire could topple Netanyahu’s coalition and force new elections which he is unlikely to win, according to polls. It would also pave the way for a state commission of inquiry into the failures that led to the October 7th, 2023 Hamas attack.

So for now Netanyahu has every reason to avoid a Gaza ceasefire.