Every year at the start of August the corner of Brussels that houses the EU institutions begins to feel like a bit of a ghost town. Restaurants close and out-of-office emails abound as thousands of officials, diplomats and other staff take holidays and get out of the city. For European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen and her team, however, there is likely to be little let up.
Following weeks of intense politicking and deal making, von der Leyen was able to convince a majority of both the 27 EU leaders and MEPs in the European Parliament to stick with her for another five-year term. As head of the commission, the executive arm of the EU that proposes laws, she has one of the most influential positions in European politics. Her first big task will be the headache of putting together a team of EU commissioners nominated by each member state.
She is asking each national government for two names to pick from, a man and a woman, to try to get a gender balance of commissioners. Von der Leyen has said she intends to start interviewing candidates put forward by countries in the middle of August.
Ireland is nominating former minister for finance Michael McGrath and will not be suggesting a second name. It will not be alone in taking this stance. Finland and Sweden have both said they plan to propose a woman as their next commissioner, while Slovenia is sending a man.
Where countries are putting forward existing commissioners, von der Leyen has said she will not look for them to give her a second option. Maroš Šefčovič (Slovakia), Valdis Dombrovskis (Latvia) and Wopke Hoekstra (the Netherlands) have all got the nod from their governments to stay on as commissioners.
A large number of EU member states, including Ireland, have indicated they are interested in finance-related commissioner portfolios, so some will be disappointed in the carve up.
Von der Leyen is planning to reorganise various roles, for example creating a new defence brief, and a commissioner responsible for housing. What jobs are given to big political hitters will say a lot about von der Leyen’s priorities for the next five years.
How much Ireland’s decision to put forward only one (male) name will harm McGrath’s chances of being given a decent portfolio remains to be seen. As someone who values loyalty, von der Leyen will not forget that the four MEPs from McGrath’s party, Fianna Fáil, voted against her appointment for a second term.
When it comes to legislation, whatever proposed laws the next commission throws on the table will be tugged in several different directions by the European Parliament, but that is to be expected. Politically von der Leyen comes from the European People’s Party (EPP), the centre right grouping that includes Fine Gael, Germany’s Christian Democrats and Donald Tusk’s Civic Platform party in Poland.
However, she relied upon the support of the Greens to get the backing of a majority of MEPs in her crucial parliament confirmation vote last week. The Greens propped her up in exchange for promises that the German will not further unwind the landmark “green deal” climate reforms of her first term.
The legislative heavy lifting has already been done on the climate front, but that doesn’t mean we won’t see plenty of scraps over efforts to push back timelines for when targets begin to kick in. Expect to hear a lot about a planned ban on new petrol and diesel cars by 2035, which the EPP has in its crosshairs. Trying to keep onside both the Greens and those on the right in the EPP will be a formidable challenge.
It’s clear defence will continue to be one of the big topics at EU level, as the war between Ukraine and Russia rages on. The sense of urgency about the security threat posed by Russian president Vladimir Putin is particularly pressing for the Baltic and Nordic states geographically close to Russia, as well as Poland and others in central and eastern Europe. Agreeing that Europe needs to spend significantly more on its defence is not the same as reaching a consensus on where the money will come from.
One plan is to ask EU countries to come up with several big ticket defence projects to fund together, such as a common air defence shield, similar to Israel’s Iron Dome system that protects its population from rocket attacks. This discussion about the future of Europe’s security has not really featured at all in Irish public debate.
When the conversation in Brussels moves on to how the EU will split the bill for ambitious projects such as a European air defence system, Ireland will have to decide where it sees itself fitting into efforts to create what von der Leyen recently called a “true European defence union”.