As its conflict with the United States alternates between escalation and negotiation, Iran appears to have time on its side. That’s only true up to a point.
Time to talk?
Within hours of Donald Trump announcing that he was calling off a massive bombing campaign against Iran because talks would start on Monday, Tehran said it was not negotiating with the US and had no plans to do so in the coming days. Describing the Iranian leadership as “unbelievably duplicitous”, Trump said that talks had already taken place and more were scheduled.
“Whether Iran wants to admit it or not, we are, in fact, talking of a solution,” he posted on social media on Monday.
This follows a familiar pattern between these two duplicitous parties that has seen Trump prematurely talking up the prospects of a deal while the Iranians deny ongoing negotiations just before the announcement of a breakthrough. And during each pause in hostilities until now, both sides have also prepared for a return to military action and the possibility of escalation.
Iran has acknowledged that it is talking to Oman about an agreed route for shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, although it claims this is distinct from any possible agreement with the US to reopen the waterway. Media briefings suggest that the arrangement could see ships entering the strait through a channel controlled by Iran and leaving through a channel controlled by Oman.
There would be no toll but ships would pay a service fee to cover administrative costs, security and environmental costs, with the proceeds shared between Iran and Oman. The issue of ships requiring Iranian approval to enter the strait, an apparent breach of the principle of freedom of navigation, would also have to be finessed.
The agreement could form part of a deal that would enable the US and Iran to return to talks based on the Memorandum of Understanding they signed in June. It would also require the lifting of the US blockade of Iranian ports and for Tehran to be allowed to start selling and shipping its oil again.
Trump called off what he said would be “the biggest attack since World War II” after Gulf leaders led by Saudi crown prince Mohammed bin Salman argued against military escalation. The crown prince “stressed the need to prioritise dialogue to reduce escalation and the importance of making every possible effort to achieve calm”, according to official Saudi reports.
Saudi Arabia has played a more assertive role in recent weeks, convening a conference in Riyadh last week on freedom of navigation in the Red Sea with 43 countries. Fourteen of them agreed to establish a maritime defensive alliance to protect shipping routes through the Bab-al-Mandab Strait, the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden from attacks by Iran’s Houthi allies, and Saudi forces joined the US in attacking Iranian-backed militias in Iraq last week.
The American political calendar is widely seen as favouring Iran on the basis that Trump will not want the war to be in the headlines in the run-up to November’s midterm congressional elections. Losing Republican control of the House of Representatives would halt Trump’s legislative agenda but losing the Senate would be more serious, with the likelihood of investigations into his conduct in the White House and the loss of his nominating power.
It is in Trump’s political interest to limit the impact of the war on the American economy and to move it off the news agenda by the beginning of September, when the intense phase of the election campaign begins. This could persuade Iran to hold out for better terms before returning to talks or to risk a return to military escalation rather than compromise if negotiations resume.
But Trump’s incentive to compromise will be strongest during the next few weeks as he seeks to move the spotlight off his failed military adventure. The political calculation will change as the midterm elections move closer, when any peace agreement involving major concessions could become an electoral liability for Republicans.
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