As the Iran war gets worse, a quartet of regional powers offers the best hope for peace. Talks could start as early as Tuesday.
The war has escalated in recent days with more intense American and Israeli bombardment of Tehran, Iranian strikes against economic targets in the Gulf, the arrival of thousands of US Marines and the entry of the Houthis into the conflict. But there was a glimmer of hope from Islamabad on Sunday when Pakistan’s foreign minister Ishaq Dar said his country was preparing to host talks aimed at ending the war.
“Pakistan will be honoured to host and facilitate meaningful talks between the two sides in coming days, for a comprehensive and lasting settlement of the ongoing conflict,” he said.
Pakistan’s Dawn newspaper this morning cited a diplomatic source in Islamabad suggesting the talks could start as early as Tuesday, and that they would be led by US secretary of state Marco Rubio and Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi. This implies a formal diplomatic process of the kind that Tehran has long demanded, as opposed to the casual approach associated with Donald Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff.
Dar was speaking after a meeting in Islamabad with the foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Egypt which he described as a very detailed and in-depth discussion on the current regional situation. This quadrilateral formation, which last met on the sidelines of a summit of Islamic countries in Riyadh on March 19th, may offer the best hope for finding a route out of the war.
Pakistan’s relationship with the United States has become remarkably warm under the current administration, with Trump describing its military chief Asim Munir as his “favourite field marshal”. Pakistan, which has a 900km border with Iran and a large Shia Muslim minority, has represented Iran’s diplomatic interests in Washington since the revolution in 1979.
Pakistan last year signed a mutual defence pact with Saudi Arabia, which normalised relations with Iran three years ago but has declared trust has been shattered by Iranian attacks on its territory since the start of the war. Turkey would like to expand the Pakistani-Saudi agreement to include itself and Egypt, although it envisions something less than a Nato-style mutual defence pact and more like a security platform to boost defence industry co-operation.
Both Pakistan’s military and Egypt’s intelligence services maintain communications channels with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps while Turkey is the only Nato member state with open diplomatic channels to Tehran. As one of the most hawkish states towards Iran in the region, Saudi Arabia could play a role in ensuring that any deal between the US and Iran takes into account the interests of the Gulf states.
The US military build-up points to a likely ground operation and the public positions of Washington and Tehran are incompatible. But if there is any hope of ending this conflict soon, it probably lies in Islamabad and in the efforts of these four regional powers.
