Leinster v Ulster, RDS, Friday, 7.45pm (TG4, , BBC 2 NI, Sky Sports 3)
The RDS will be rocking like never before this season. Not only will this truly intriguing, history-soaked, semi-final derby be an official 19,100 sell-out, but it will actually look like that and most definitely, with Ulster taking up their 25 per cent allocation, it will sound like it too.
In the blue corner stand a slightly misfiring Leinster, but generously sprinkled with proven big-game players and with a near book-load of heavy statistics backing their case. Not the least of these is playing at the RDS, given they are 11 from 11 at home in the league this season.
In the red, and white, corner stand a vibrantly in-form Ulster, having won four on the spin and scored 16 tries in their last three matches. A 10-year trophy drought has given them a voracious appetite, all the more so after a host of May anti-climaxes in recent times, not least against their bogey side in blue.
Indeed, motivation, or at any rate wounded pride, is a funny thing, and curiously both have plenty of the stuff coming into this game. Ulster’s wounds are deeper, but Leinster’s are fresher.
Yesterday was the fourth anniversary of Leinster’s 42-14 win in the 2012 Twickenham Heineken Cup final over Ulster, one of four knockout defeats Ulster have suffered at Leinster’s hands in the month of May, including the 2011 and 2014 league semi-finals here and the league final of 2013, which was switched to the RDS while the Kingspan Stadium was being re-developed.
Filleted
Yet, against all of that, when Leinster pitched up in the Kingspan Stadium three weeks ago they were filleted 30-6. To rub salt in those wounds, the Ulster defence coach Joe Barakat has described Leinster’s back play as “predictable”.
In referencing this last Tuesday, Les Kiss acknowledged that this would be an additional source of motivation for Leinster, and when Isa Nacewa was specifically asked if this was the case yesterday, he almost hissed his answer: "Yes."
And yet with over 60 per cent possession, Leinster also know their running game, as such, was both pedantic and predictable that day.
From the vantage point of the cheap seats, Leinster’s intended recipient was invariably the next man in the line.
Their lines of running were lateral, whereas not only did Ulster run straighter, their passing was more often in front of the recipient; they used more decoys, with Paddy Jackson taking the ball to the line and invariably picking out the right recipient (the key being he had several to choose from); they also had better strike plays; executed better; were less sloppy in possession; and played with more width.
And yet there’s no way that will be replicated. Leinster won’t allow it, least of all in their own ground. Kiss knows that better than anyone,
Ulster’s more expansive game is also a case of needs must, for without Nick Williams they lack their primary ball-carrier, but then again ditto Leinster, who are without Seán O’Brien.
Leinster’s philosophy appears to have been more a case of wearing teams down by numbers, through their scrum or lineout maul, or through repeated recycling or their previously well-grooved defence.
No team can turn it on like a tap, but Leinster re-discovered at least some of their mojo last time out against Treviso when going back to basics; they have also had a fortnight to ready themselves for this game and if any team can turn it on like a tap, it’s one with proven big-game trophy hunters.
Mastery of the basics
What’s more, superior mastery of the basics can often be sufficient on knockout occasions such as this, all the more so given the inclement forecast.
However, in times past, Leinster have usually had more strength in depth than any of their Irish or indeed Celtic rivals, but their frontrow and backrow options have been diminished, and hence their bench may not have the impact of yore.
Their scrum struggled against Ulster three weeks ago, and there is no Cian Healy or Marty Moore to summon to the fray.
Of course, it would be no huge surprise if Leinster turned up on the night and delivered. They are marginal favourites. Yet, thinking back to their European form and the treks to Glasgow, Connacht and Ulster – good sides playing well – Leinster have often come up short this season. By contrast, as they showed against Toulouse in Europe and recently at home to Leinster and away to an all-guns-blazing Ospreys, Ulster have at times delivered handsomely.
True, they have some baggage as well as form, but they look to be in a marginally better place.
LEINSTER: Isa Nacewa; Dave Kearney, Garry Ringrose, Ben Te'o, Luke Fitzgerald; Johnny Sexton, Eoin Reddan; Jack McGrath, Richard Strauss, Mike Ross; Devin Toner, Mick Kearney; Rhys Ruddock, Jordi Murphy, Jamie Heaslip.
Replacements: Sean Cronin, Peter Dooley, Tadhg Furlong, Ross Molony, Jack Conan, Luke McGrath, Ian Madigan, Zane Kirchner.
ULSTER: J Payne; A Trimble, L Marshall, S McCloskey, C Gilroy; P Jackson, R Pienaar; C Black, R Best, R Lutton; P Browne, F van der Merwe; I Henderson, C Henry, S Reidy.
Replacements: R Herring, K McCall, A Warwick, R Diack, R Wilson, P Marshall, S Olding, D Cave.
