There is an ability in some sports top players possess, which coaches call emergent intelligence or premeditation. It comes from training for Plan A. But Plan A never happens. It’s no different in rugby. Players train for Plan A and it doesn’t happen.
In a match where Plan A departs early and the team are left playing with 14 men for all but 14 minutes, players are asked to make dramatic adjustments and forced to find good decisions under greater pressure. There has to be an element of premeditation, which is picking up early cues and setting up to anticipate.
In that Hugo Keenan can take comfort from his seventh outing in an Irish shirt. For a rugby fullback the intelligence comes from the previous plays of the outhalf, scrumhalf box kicking or fullback shaping up to kick a high ball. It all determines what comes next.
Not only was his work ethic impressive but the aerobic capacity to keep up the high tempo involvement and availability was consistently sharp and immediate
With the Irish fullback position still in flux, the former international 7's player is maybe an answer; a player who is comfortable under high balls, running support lines in the backline and counterattacking. Against Wales much of Keenan's play was policing the shoulder of centre Garry Ringrose hoping for offload gold.
He was tested for his positioning and poise after just 25 seconds. It was not an accident. Welsh scrumhalf, Tomos Williams, box kicked towards him on the right side of the pitch. Keenan watched it fall. The catch looked like second nature. Over the course of the match, he was asked to catch at least half a dozen high balls. He didn’t flinch.
A conservative counting of Keenan’s engagements, involvements, support runs, hitting of rucks and overall contact with play came to 32 moments. Not only was his work ethic impressive but the aerobic capacity to keep up the high tempo involvement and availability was consistently sharp and immediate.
It was clear to see Andy Farrell wants Keenan running at opponents. His light, top of the ground pace and quick feet invariably got him up to and over the gain line. From as early as the second minute he was on CJ Stander's shoulder looking for an offload going into contact, his intentions clear.
Tackling was also on point. The 24-year-old is a low tackler, not the stand up his man type. His physique doesn't allow. But his timing on a couple of occasions against Dan Biggar and Louis Rees-Zammit were perfect as he went around the angles and took them off their feet.
There are never perfect games and Keenan's kicking was average, the left boot of winger James Lowe lightening that burden on a number of return kicks. It is the work in progress part of Keenan's brief. His preference is for probing counter attack running, most of it not directly into contact. He is elusive and in that aspect of his game he was confident and effective, although no clear chances to turn on the burners arose.
It is worth remembering Keenan only earned a call-up to the Ireland squad at the end of October last on the back of impressive performances on the wing and at fullback
Then for George North's try on 49 minutes Ireland's Plan A did not happen for a second time. Exiting the 22 with Ringrose in possession the ball was knocked from his arms. Conor Murray flipped it back but the ball was missed and Wales countered with North running in all too easily.
Just maybe Keenan, had he more experience at playing the position, might have premeditated what was happening as it was happening. Caught at mid-point on the pitch he began his cover run across to make the tackle too late and North was in. Iain Henderson had just been trampled in the scramble and was never getting there, while Tadhg Beirne was stretching to make the tackle.
Easy to say with Ireland a man down and the positional calculations essentially more complex. But the early warning, emergent intelligence will come from playing in the position more often. With Larmour gaining his stride and Andrew Conway and Jacob Stockdale yet to return and contest for a place, Farrell will add up the plus and minus numbers in all positions and pleasantly find that Keenan is heavily in the black.
He will not play the role like Rob Kearney or Girvan Dempsey, both reliably strong, brave under high balls and positional gurus. But nor did either player have Keenan's gift of light feet or his slippery handling of heavy traffic.
It is worth remembering Keenan only earned a call-up to the Ireland squad at the end of October last on the back of impressive performances on the wing and at fullback for Leinster and was named on the left wing for the visit of Italy in the rearranged Six Nations fixture.
The 24-year-old duly exploded in to Test rugby, scoring two first half tries and was unfortunate to have another ruled out, a minor inconvenience on an otherwise perfect debut.
Again, Keenan was assured and error free, his floated pass to Larmour at the end to put his Leinster teammate under pressure hardly a serious blemish. It’s an encouraging, personnel start to 2021. The French will be more inquisitional but the Irish shirt at fullback has found another home. Keenan unassumingly excellent. No drama. A fit Stockdale and Larmour may require a Plan B.
