Andy Farrell’s first selection of the season for Saturday’s game against Japan seems likely to reflect both the contrasting game time of several Irish frontliners have been exposed to this season and Leinster’s form in the first five rounds of the URC campaign.
There have been further shifts in the sand since both the end of last season, most notably Andrew Porter’s switch to the loosehead. This is likely to see him selected to start there for the first time in a Test, and such was the dynamic level of performance of the Porter-Rónan Kelleher-Tadhg Furlong combination in Leinster’s 50-15 win over the Scarlets that it would be no surprise to see them start en bloc. This has been in the making for a while.
The same could be true of the Caelan Doris-Josh van der Flier-Jack Conan backrow, such was the manner Conan carried on where he left off for the Lions series in that eye-catching seasonal reappearance. It would also reflect an increased emphasis on having a pack of ball-playing forwards.
If so, that would leave the question of who partners James Ryan, and with Iain Henderson restricted to just one 54 minute outing in Ulster’s defeat by Connacht, it could be that another Lion, Tadhg Beirne, is preferred after two impressive outings for Munster.
Nor is the Leinster influence likely to stop there, given Johnny Sexton will lead the side out on his 100th Test for Ireland. With Conor Murray restricted to just a 20-minute stint away to the Ospreys, Jamison Gibson-Park may start at scrumhalf.
In the absence of Robbie Henshaw, the obvious go-to partnership in midfield is Bundee Aki and Garry Ringrose. Such has been the ease with which Hugo Keenan has taken to international rugby that he looks a shoo-in for his 14th successive start at fullback in what would also be his first in front of a significant attendance.
The wing positions look a good deal more complex. Keith Earls’s candidature for a starting role hasn’t been helped by two Munster outings in midfield, although it might contribute to a place in the squad. James Lowe is now back and, along with Conway, is the most match-hardened this season with three games under his belt.
Henderson, Peter O’Mahony and Murray could provide further experience off the bench, thus also making them options for the All Blacks game, and the uncapped Dan Sheehan is a live contender for a Test debut among the replacements.
IRELAND (possible) v Japan: H Keenan; A Conway, G Ringrose, B Aki, J Lowe; J Sexton, J Gibson-Park; A Porter, R Kelleher, T Furlong; J Ryan, T Beirne; C Doris, J van der Flier, J Conan.
Replacements: D Sheehan or R Herring, C Healy or D Kilcoyne, F Bealham or Healy, I Henderson, P O'Mahony, C Murray, J Carbery, K Earls.
