Stick or twist? Stick, for sure. An Irish team that had won 18 of its previous 19 matches – something which was beyond the realms of possibility for any Irish team before them – deserves the faith of its public and, more pertinently, its coaching staff. And, whatever about the rest of us, that is surely what they'll get from Joe Schmidt and his coaches anyway.
It’s worth remembering again that 13 of this side were, after all, amongst the starting XV when Ireland beat the All Blacks only last November. In winning a Grand Slam, recording a come-from-behind series win in Australia et al, along the way they ended the joint world record runs of 18 consecutive wins by England and New Zealand; and if Ireland proved the latter duo were human on a given day, then England proved the same of Ireland last Saturday.
True, there were issues that will need addressing from last Saturday, such as starting matches and particularly tournaments stronger, finding other ways of exiting or releasing pressure if the pathways for Ireland’s chasing box kicks are blocked, or finding other means of go-forward when the primary ball-carriers are stopped in their tracks and finding other ways of playing catch-up. That’s six defeats when behind at half-time, along with 23 wins when ahead at the interval, in their last 29 matches.
Perhaps with, say, a World Cup quarter-final against South Africa or New Zealand in mind, it may also prove to be beneficial to have been beaten, and a little beaten up, by an imposingly physical side such as England.
Admittedly, Ireland’s wriggle room has been reduced. Another defeat in Murrayfield next Saturday wouldn’t signal the end of the world as we know it, much less Ireland’s World Cup hopes, but it would end their title hopes and, after two rounds, that would be psychologically damaging.
Winning culture
Every ultimate World Cup winner came into the tournament on the back of a winning culture over a period of time with a relatively settled management and playing squad. Newly configured squads or those seeking to turn around poor form have occasionally reached finals. But they’ve never won out.
Stander's absence paves the way for the return of Sean O'Brien, whose leadership would lift all boats
These Irish coaches and this playing group are smart enough and talented enough to put right the wrongs of last Saturday without recourse to drastic changes in personnel. Besides, one change or more will be forced upon them anyway.
Jack Conan would be more of a like-for-like replacement for CJ Stander, while there's also a case for bringing Rhys Ruddock's physicality into the mix.
But Stander’s absence paves the way for the return of Sean O’Brien, whose leadership and sheer presence would lift all boats, add some ballast across the gain line and perhaps quicken Ireland’s defensive line speed. This wasn’t as sharp as England’s last Saturday and needs to be more aggressive in Murrayfield, particularly with Finn Russell’s playmaking skills in mind.
If Devin Toner is ruled out, Ultan Dillane and Quinn Roux are the options, and if Keith Earls is ruled out, and Andrew Conway back in Munster, Jordan Larmour is the only other realistic option.
The big question is whether Schmidt and co stick with Robbie Henshaw at fullback, or reinstate Rob Kearney. Promoting Larmour, if Earls is fit, seems less likely, while calling up Will Addison is a long shot, and Joey Carbery an illogical one given the investment in him as one of Ireland's two outhalves.
Admission of failure
Schmidt has been clearly of a mind to have a proper look at Henshaw in the fullback role for some time now. To abandon this experiment after one game would be an admission of failure, and make it extremely difficult to resort to again in a World Cup.
Kearney has been truly phenomenal. He is the only player to have started all 20 games in Ireland’s Six Nations titles of 2009, 2014, 2015 and 2018. He’s been a rock.
But in the last two-plus seasons, he has been a virtual ever-present at fullback for Ireland against tier one opposition, and his effectiveness as a strike runner and finisher has diminished, witness a 45-game run for Leinster and Ireland without a try.
Granted, we only fully appreciate his positional play and anticipation when he's not there. It is a badge of honour for Kearney not to concede an attacking lineout to the opposition from open play, and his communication skills are by all accounts excellent. But with Simon Zebo having bid au revoir to Munster and Jared Payne retired, Ireland need some options at fullback.
Henshaw can only learn from last Saturday, especially with the help of Schmidt, <a class="search" href='javascript:window.parent.actionEventData({$contentId:"7.1213540", $action:"view", $target:"work"})' polopoly:contentid="7.1213540" polopoly:searchtag="tag_person">Andy Farrell</a> and team-mates
Hence, having made an 80-minute investment in Henshaw, there is merit in adding at least one more game for the experiment to have real value. He was left to cover an extraordinary amount of ground from right to left, not least in the build-up to his sliced kick off his weaker foot – which can happen to any full-back – and then the Elliot Daly try.
Five-metre scrum
When covering one Farrell kick, then having the strength to prevent a five-metre scrum, it's hard to see what else he could have done, and with Earls off he had the inexperienced Larmour and Jacob Stockdale as his wings for the second half.
Henshaw can only learn from last Saturday, especially with the help of Schmidt, Andy Farrell and team-mates. He will be sharper and is mentally strong. It may pay to stick with him, and dropping Bundee Aki would be harsh after his contributions in 2018. Dropping Henshaw would send out a negative message to the player himself.
All in all, it felt like a bad opening weekend all round for Ireland. They have helped to give England’s Six Nations and World Cup campaigns a serious lift-off, while France’s latest mental implosion – so sad to watch – probably ensures Wales will have everything to play for come the final day in Cardiff.
Oh well, if it was easy that really would be boring.
gthornley@irishtimes.com
