As is usually the case in advance of the final weekend of pool matches in the European Champions Cup, the permutations with regard to qualification are endless. Furthermore, this weekend’s results will not only determine the quarter-final line-up, but also influence the semi-final line-up as well.
In other words, not only can Leinster and Munster secure home quarter-finals by beating Castres away on Friday night and Racing at home on Saturday evening, but that would also enhance their chances of home country advantage in the semi-finals as well.
Until last season, a random draw previously determined the semi-final pairings, whereupon EPCR decided that the semi-finals would be set in advance, and that the “home” semi-finals would be designated based on”performances by clubs during the pool stages as well as the achievement of a winning a quarter-final match away from home”.
In the heel of the hunt, a first or second placed ranking would earn a home quarter-final, but also the possibility of a “home” semi-final. By contrast, the third or fourth ranked pool winners would earn a home quarter-final but be condemned to an “away” semi-final.
The quarter-final rankings will also determine which half of the semi-final draw each side will be in. In other words were Leinster and Munster to achieve a ranking of first and second or third, they will be in opposite halves of the semi-final draw, and therefore could not meet before the final. As things currently stand, this looks likelier than not.
As before, the eight quarter-finalists will see the five pool winners ranked from one to five, with the three best runners-up ranked 6th, 7th and 8th. The quarter-finals will again follow established lines: 1st v 8th; 4th v 5th, 3rd v 6th and 2nd v 7th.
Home country advantage
Home country advantage in the semi-finals will depend on the identity of those winners. If the first ranked and fourth ranked sides progress, the first ranked will have home country advantage in the semi-finals. But if the first ranked and fifth ranked sides win, the fifth ranked side will be at “home”.
If the eighth and fifth ranked sides reached the semis, the fifth ranked side would be at home. But if the eighth and fourth ranked sides won, then the eighth-ranked be at home.
In the other half of the draw, if the second and third ranked sides reached the semis, the second-ranked side will be at home, whereas if the second and sixth ranked sides win, the latter would have home country advantage.
If the third and seventh ranked sides won, then the seventh ranked side would be at home. And, finally, if the sixth and seventh ranked sides met in the semis, the sixth ranked side would be at home.
It’s confusing, but let’s try to simplify it with examples. It’s worth remembering that in the event of two sides from different pools having the same number of points, their final ranking will be determined first by points’ difference, and then by the number of tries scored.
Leinster are currently ranked first on 21 points and given their healthy points difference of +140, can ensure they finish first with a bonus point win away to Castres, while a win of any kind should earn a first or second ranking.
Were they ranked first, and won their quarter-final, they would have home advantage if the fourth-ranked side won at home to the fifth ranked side. Likewise, were they ranked second and won their quarter-final, and the third-ranked side did likewise against the sixth-ranked side, Leinster would be at home in the semi-finals.
Munster, currently ranked third, require a win and most probably with a bonus point against Racing 92 to overtake either Leinster or, more likely, Clermont. Helpfully for Munster, both Leinster and Clermont will have completed their games come kick-off in Thomond Park.
As an aside, Leinster and Munster would be in opposite halves of the draw, and so could not meet in the semi-finals for a third time. This would also apply if they finished first and third in the ranking. Were they to be ranked first and fourth, or second and third, they would be in the same half and could meet in the semis.
For the sake of simplicity, Wasps look likely to win Pool 5 on the fairly premise that they take five points from their trek to Zebre, and barring Connacht claiming a bonus point win away to Toulouse.
Final ranking
Unlike determining the ranking between two teams from different pools, in the event of two teams in the same pool finishing level on points, their final ranking will be decided first by match points in their two meetings.
In the case of Connacht, this is significant.
Toulouse took a bonus point from the Sportsground on the opening weekend, leaving Connacht 4-1 ahead in match points. Hence, were Toulouse to make up the difference in winning by more than seven points or winning with a bonus point of their own on Sunday, even if Connacht achieved a losing bonus point, the French side would go through.
In other words, were they to finish level on either 18 or 19 points, Toulouse would progress due to the tally of match points in the two games, be it 5-4 or 6-5. The total number of tries scored or points difference would not come into it.
A Connacht win would end all arguments. But at the very least, Connacht have to get a losing bonus point out of Sunday’s game, while denying Toulouse one, to go through.
Who needs what . . .
POOL 1
Munster have qualified for the last eight and a win over Racing 92 will ensure a Thomond Park quarter-final. A bonus point win would enhance their chances of achieving a top two ranking, and thereby the possibility of a home country semi-final.
A Glasgow win over Leicester would guarantee them a first ever quarter-final as one of the three best runners-up. A losing bonus point could be enough, provided Montpelier haven’t beaten Northampton with a bonus point the night before, or Toulon take nothing at Saracens. Come kick-off, Glasgow will know the outcome of both matches.
POOL 2
Wasps are favourites to go through as pool winners with a bonus point win away to Zebre, given the Italians’ defence has more holes than the proverbial soup strainer.
The pool runners-up, Connacht or Toulouse, will definitely advance. Connacht know that a win, or failing that, a losing bonus point while denying Toulouse four tries, would suffice. Anything less though, and they’ll miss out, for a Toulouse win by more than seven points, or a win with a bonus point while denying Connacht two bonus points, would see them ranked ahead of Pat Lam’s given the combined match points in the two meetings.
POOL 3
Saracens are also through and a win over Toulon will secure another home quarter-final. Toulon need a bonus point victory and by more than seven points to win the pool. Failing that, a win of any kind would see Toulon advance as one of the best runners-up, though in truth a bonus point alone would almost certainly be sufficient.
POOL 4
Leinster have qualified for the last eight and a win in Castres would ensure a home quarter-final. It would almost certainly ensure a top two ranking as well, and with that the chance of a “home” semi-final.
Castres need a bonus point win and other results to go their way, notably Glasgow taking nothing from Welford Road, to maintain their remote hopes.
Montpelier need a win, and preferably with a bonus point, to keep their interest alive into the rest of the weekend, and then defeats for either Glasgow or Toulon.
POOL 5
Clermont have qualified and a win over Exeter will secure a home quarter-final. Were it to come with a bonus point, they would be assured of a top two ranking in the last eight. Exeter and Bordeaux-Bégles retain faint hopes, but for Ulster the game against the latter is a dead rubber.
