The bad news is that while Ireland’s performance against the Wallabies was much improved, a similar performance will not be enough to overcome the Springboks.
I know that’s hard to hear.
I do not wish to be a killjoy, but last Saturday’s scoreboard tilted so heavily towards Ireland, mainly because Australia were simply horrible. I predicted that Ireland would win, but I did not expect to see the Wallabies implode. Apart from their astonishingly inept displays at the 2023 Rugby World Cup, that was the worst Wallabies performance I have witnessed.
South Africa are the polar opposite. The Boks continue to ascend. This is because we are witnessing a revelation in how South Africa attack, something that has them playing to a standard above every other team on the planet and on track to win an unprecedented third consecutive William Webb Ellis Trophy.
Across the last two World Cup cycles South Africa have exploited loopholes in the game’s safety laws to create the brutality of selecting seven forwards on their bench. The sole purpose of this tactic was to transform their scrum into a vehicle that created and won match-defining penalties. They had zero interest in liberating possession for their backline attack.
The sheer power, size and number of Boks forwards would gain multiple scrum penalties for them to take either a shot for points or punt to touch and maul for a try. Neither option involved their immensely talented backline players.
These were exceptionally clever tactics, but at the same time, they were an ugly, malevolent distortion of what our game is meant to be. The Boks’ play personified the worst cynical aspects of how a team can go forward by discarding both the ethos and risks of creative running rugby.
William Webb Ellis picked up the ball and ran with it. That is our ethos and heritage. He did not form a scrum to win a penalty, then kick to touch and maul.
The South African play of the past was like looking into a mirror and seeing the worst version of ourselves because they were prepared to drag the game into the gutter in order to win.
With a pool match defeat to Ireland and three single-point victories in the knockout stages, the Boks’ 2023 RWC win was as close as it gets. To remain at the peak of world rugby the South Africans had to evolve. If they stayed with the same game plan, other teams would rise above.
Change is never easy, but their head coach, Rassie Erasmus, understood there was only one pathway forward to an unprecedented third World Cup win. South Africa had to embrace the risks that running with the ball in hand brings.
This season, the Springboks have had a Road to Damascus-like conversion from playing a barbarically unimaginative game to creating play that is mesmerically beautiful, utilising the immense ball-carrying skills of their outstanding athletes. In embracing the risks of running the ball, they have also unlocked the joys.
For many years, I have maintained that the latent attacking talent inside the Springbok players was so immense that if they added a running game to their quiver of attacking options, no team in the world could stay with them. While that crystal ball gazing is easy to write, witnessing the enormity of the transformation to the Springboks’ attack comes under the banner of “Be careful of what you wish for.”
This is a Springboks team that is now approaching greatness.
Ireland’s record win over Australia sets up Springboks clash perfectly
However, do not be fooled. The heart of the Springboks’ attack remains their pack. The Boks can still scrummage any team in the world into the first rows of the grandstand, and their driving maul can push you into the car park. At the same time, the accuracy of their kicking game will pin you inside your 22. What should truly frighten the rest of the rugby world is that South Africa are now running the ball with exceptional creativity.
The main beneficiary of the platform created by the Springboks forwards is their 23-year-old outhalf Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu. Tall and athletic, he is the epitome of the triple threat. He can kick, pass and run with electric pace.
While Feinberg-Mngomezulu’s skills make him a potent individual attacking threat, he also possesses the organisational abilities to bring the players around him into the game. His leadership has empowered Jesse Kriel, Damian de Allende, Canan Moodie and Damian Willemse to display the attacking skills we suspected they possessed but had never witnessed on the international stage. Ireland’s defensive system and the tackling of Sam Prendergast will be severely tested.
Like St Paul in his transformation from sinner to saint, the Boks’ past is forgiven and their future is full of hope. It is wonderful to see the world champions of our game playing in a manner that brings credit and joy to rugby. Something that the tactics of their past did not do. Like the great New Zealand team of 2015, the Boks are playing an inspirational and entertaining style of rugby that is also exceptionally difficult to overcome.
And more power to them.
But they have one weakness. In their defensive system, the South Africans compact their defenders into a tight, rapidly advancing line. This leaves 25m of unmarked space outside their last defender. After the Wallabies’ performance last week, this is hard to believe, but only a few months ago, they exposed this weakness at Ellis Park. Australia moved the ball to the flanks and scored enough points out wide to record a historic victory.
While there is hope for Ireland, it is impossible to overstate the enormity of the challenge the South Africans will bring to the Aviva. It may be a very tough night for the home team.
If Ireland can find an unlikely path to victory, it will be recorded as one of their greatest.
Either way, soak in the joys of watching the world champions and Ireland creating positive ball in hand, running rugby. Playing the game as it should be played.
A belter of a game awaits.
