Since leaving these shores in 2019, Joe Schmidt has twice coached against Ireland. Not just his ex-employers, but his former proteges: Andy Farrell, Simon Easterby, Andrew Goodman and even new-ish coach Johnny Sexton have all been shaped by their time with Joe.
On both occasions, Schmidt bloodied Irish noses. And then some in the case of the All Blacks – with Schmidt as an assistant – knocking Ireland out of the 2023 World Cup. Last November, with Genial Joe in charge, Australia gave Ireland an almighty scare, Gus McCarthy’s late maul try avoiding an upset.
Pointing to the master outwitting his former apprentices is an overly simple narrative. Inevitably, though, there are common tactical threads in both displays from the Schmidt-coached teams.
Slow Lions build-up finally culminates in Test week
Farrell now has a different squad of players at his disposal, even if plenty of Irish are still involved. Yet his rugby philosophy, along with what we’ve seen from the Australian Super Rugby sides, may offer clues for how Schmidt might plan another crack at his former number two.
RM Block
Kicking
Test matches decided by the best kicking strategies? Yes, it’s neither the most novel nor sexy analysis, but it’s too important to omit. When coming up against Ireland, Schmidt’s teams had better days out when putting boot to ball.
When New Zealand beat Ireland at the World Cup, they had a lower kick-to-pass ratio (meaning they kicked more frequently). It wasn’t even close, Ireland kicking once for every 16 passes, the All Blacks once for every four.
Last November, Schmidt’s Australia kicked once for every five passes compared to Ireland’s figure of one for every 11.
In that clash in Dublin, the first Wallabies try came from using their not-so-secret weapon, the 6ft 5in Joseph Aukuso-Suaalii. On first phase, inside the Ireland half, Australia went to the air. Aukuso-Suaalii won it back inside the 22, beating Hugo Keenan and Robbie Henshaw. Australia scored moments later.
In their three worst displays of the tour – against Argentina, the Waratahs and Brumbies – the Lions have been outkicked. In Dublin and Canberra, Marcus Smith was targeted ruthlessly, while expected Test starters James Lowe and Tommy Freeman also struggled to claim possession under pressure from Brumbies chasers.
What, if anything, can be done to fix the imbalance given the laws banning kick escorts?
Set-piece
What has been the other common denominator in poor Irish displays of recent years? The set-piece. It’s all well and good worrying about Farrell’s famed phase-play attack, the simplest way of stopping it is at source; shut down their entry points into the game.
Both against New Zealand in 2023 and Australia 2024, Ireland were held to an 87 per cent lineout success rate. We all remember the series of scrum penalties given against Andrew Porter by Wayne Barnes in that World Cup quarter-final.
New Zealand’s scrum coach that day was Mike Cron. Guess who Schmidt took with him to become Australia’s scrum specialist?
In a way, Cron also wrote the rules on scrummaging. Before his All Blacks role, he worked for World Rugby, coaching referees on how to officiate the frontrow battle. Before the tour, Lions scrum coach John Fogarty was asked about Cron’s influence, especially with the number of Irish frontrows – Porter included – now wearing red.
“He’s a huge advantage,” said Fogarty. “He’ll have an intimate knowledge of us, he worked with the Six Nations coaches pre the last World Cup. He’ll know the players, know us as coaches, he’s a huge get for them.”
Was Cron able to use his knowledge of both the referee and the Irish scrum to isolate Porter in that quarter-final?
“Who knows, let’s just blame Wayne Barnes,” said Fogarty with a nervous smile.
Target the playmakers
Former Leinster analyst Brett Igoe posted a clip to social media after the Brumbies game. Their scrumhalf, Ryan Lonergan, had a specific job in defence; rush up to disrupt Finn Russell.
Farrell’s phased attack relies on the first receiver making a good passing decision to get outside the initial wave of defence. Often on a one-man crusade, Lonergan would rush out of the line, not to hit Finn Russell, Bundee Aki or whoever took the first pass, but to get into their peripheral vision.
This often forced a delayed decision, preventing the playmaker from picking the right pass which can often be out the back of a decoy. Momentum was stalled.
Was Schmidt asking Brumbies coach Stephen Larkham to trial a tactic to disrupt Russell? The move certainly harked back to what Australia did to Jamison Gibson-Park in November. Then, Schmidt often sent forwards crashing through the lineout to disrupt the scrumhalf’s passing service.
That, combined with a malfunctioning set-piece more generally, led to Ireland becoming conservative, throwing to the front and relying on the other forwards to block the Aussie runners. Gibson-Park was ultimately better protected, but passing from the front of the lineout, as opposed to the back, diminished both his options and his influence.
Might Schmidt combine the two on Saturday, sending forwards to get in Gibson-Park’s face and his own scrumhalf to disrupt Russell?
Breakdown
Plenty of analysis of this tour has focused on the breakdown. With good reason. Schmidt-coached sides love to go after Farrell’s teams on the floor. When New Zealand beat Ireland at the World Cup, backrows Sam Cane and Ardie Savea won four turnovers between them. Aussie openside Fraser McReight had the same number alone last November.
In Australia, Waratahs flanker Charlie Gamble was memorable for his four turnovers against the Lions as much as his flowing moustache. Brumbies backrow Luke Reimer won two turnovers in his half an hour off the bench.
Critics have pointed to the Lions’ support runners running past their ball-carrying team-mate in anticipation of an offload. They are then out of position to hit the ruck once a pass fails to materialise, leaving the carrier exposed.
There have also been many turnovers after line breaks. Ground has been made, but carriers have distanced themselves from support. The Lions are still averaging a healthy 10 line breaks per match on tour but are coughing up at least three breakdown turnovers per match.
Interestingly, while on Sky punditry duty, Ronan O’Gara pointed the finger not at the support players missing rucks, but, using his French attitude, said the carrier should be brave enough to throw the offload. Don’t give the defence an opportunity to jackal. But as the tour has gone on, the Lions have become more conservative with their offloading.
The Argentina game saw them throw 15 (plenty were ill-judged and went to deck in Dublin), then 23 and 13 in their first two games in Australia. The next three games saw just seven, eight and five offloads respectively. The trend suggests O’Gara’s “keep ball alive” philosophy won’t see the light of day in the Test series. Which means the Lions need to find another way of better resourcing breakdowns.
First phase structure
In both 2023 and 2024, Schmidt set up his backline with his best tackler targeting Caelan Doris, knowing Ireland would look to their dominant carrier on first phase. His best defensive jackal threat was not far behind, swooping for a breakdown turnover. It worked to devastating effect, halting both Andrew Goodman’s strong set-piece attack while doing psychological damage to Ireland’s breakdown.
In 2023, Sam Cane lined up Doris time and again off lineout ball. Ardie Savea waited next to him, winning the race to the breakdown even with plenty of Irish clearers in the vicinity. In 2024, swap out Cane for Rob Valetini and Savea for McReight. His defensive physicality is one of the main reasons why Australia are desperate for Valetini to prove his fitness for Saturday.
This is not a novel defensive set-up. But it still had success. One solution is to demand better accuracy from those close to whoever carries in midfield.
Or, the Lions can operate more full-man lineouts, dragging backrow forwards into the set-piece. If they then make the first carry in the wide channel, instead of midfield, they attack wings and outside centres who, normally, are not as proficient at the breakdown.
Goodman has constructed some wide attacks on this tour, Duhan van der Merwe’s third try against the AUNZ XV a prominent example. The Lions sucked in forwards with a maul, before pulling the trigger against a backline lacking cover from the backrow.
