Ireland v Italy
Venue: Aviva Stadium, Dublin. Kick-off: Sunday, 3pm. On TV: Virgin Media One and ITV.
At first glance, almost everything about this fixture appears designed to ensure something of an Irish comedown, if not the unthinkable. There is the high of last week’s record win on French soil, the formguide which points to the most lopsided fixture in this year’s Guinness Six Nations, a less experienced, slightly more experimental Irish selection, a potentially dangerous Italian side with nothing to lose and, of course, a sleepy Sunday afternoon kick-off.
In making half a dozen changes to the starting XV from that stunning 38-17 win in Marseille, it transpires that once again contrary to a supposed clean bill of health, Andy Farrell’s hand was forced by injury. Neither the absentee captain Peter O’Mahony nor Tadhg Furlong trained at all this week due to calf injuries which are not likely to rule them out of the game against Wales a fortnight hence. Ditto Bundee Aki, who has “a rumbling knee”.
Hence Ryan Baird, Finlay Bealham and Stuart McCloskey come into the team.
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In addition, Tadhg Beirne, who has played more minutes (1,262) this season than any other member of the Irish squad, has been rested while Josh van der Flier and Jamison Gibson-Park have been kept in reserve.
As a result, James Ryan and Jack Conan are promoted from the bench, while Craig Casey is granted his fourth Test start (and his third against Italy). With Jeremy Loughman, Tom O’Toole, Iain Henderson and Jordan Larmour also called into the match-day squad as Ireland revert to a more conventional 5-3 bench, so it is that along with O’Mahony, the squad’s other centurions, Cian Healy and Conor Murray, also make way, as does Ciarán Frawley.
Caelan Doris shifts to openside and, in perhaps the selection with potentially the most significant long-term consequences, has also been handed the Irish captaincy for the first time, and thus becomes the 110th man to do so.
This would appear to suggest that not only does Doris remain the alternative openside to Van der Flier but has been earmarked as the putative successor to O’Mahony.
Whether that long-term succession comes to pass, with Johnny Sexton retired and O’Mahony unlikely to remain the captain until the next World Cup, Farrell acknowledged there is a need to cultivate more leaders within the squad.
“Yeah, 100 per cent. The leadership group and the rest of the squad continue to grow in that regard. Seeing them get behind Caelan this week so Caelan is comfortable just being himself has been a joy to watch really.
“Then, there’s obviously others within that group who are more than capable. You look at Iain Henderson, the leadership that he’s got, James Ryan, who has obviously captained Ireland for us before, Garry Ringrose is going through the roof as a leader. We’re in a good space as far as that’s concerned.”
In any case, the net effect is that this Irish match-day 23 has a combined 695 caps, compared to the 1,033 in the Stade Velodrome a week ago. It’s true too that relatively weakened Irish sides have a history of not always delivering to Farrell’s liking, with Fiji in November 2022 springing to mind and, to a lesser extent, the win in Rome a year ago.
Yet this is hardly a team of greenhorns. There remains a strong spine and some of those promoted or called aboard must be straining at the leash, be it Ryan, Conan (who looked razor sharp off the bench in Marseille), Casey (reputedly mightily peed off not to be involved a week ago), or the others. Farrell’s selection is also a good way of both incentivising and managing the squad.
This Irish side also remains more experienced than its Italian counterpart, which has 532 caps in its match-day squad.
The Azzurri have also suffered a double setback after their primary ball-carrying backrowers Sebastian Negri and Lorenzo Cannone were ruled out through injury, although they are boosted by the return of the brilliant Toulouse fullback Ange Capuozzo, who was a late withdrawal ahead of the England clash due to sickness.
Much is expected of the once-capped blindside flanker Alessandro Izekor in time while it’s also good to see Tommaso Menoncello back after he left the warm-up game here in August distraught, and his performance last week against England underlined what Italy missed in their dismal World Cup campaign. A fourth change sees Stephen Varney restored at scrumhalf while Alessandro Garbisi misses out.
The younger Garbisi finished one of two lovely first-half tries against England when Italy set up their attack sharply off opposition box kicks, and with the creativity of the underrated Juan Ignacio Brex and Capuozzo back they have the weapons to again hurt Ireland.
But one of the keys to Ireland remaining so dominant against Italy is actually retaining respect for the threat they pose. And it permeates from the top down and, presumably, the bottom up.
“You know me, I’m not disrespectful to anyone,” said Farrell yesterday. “It’s not the way that I am but honestly, it is about us. It’s about us improving on last week, and the expectation that we’ve got within our own four walls, of an understanding of how we kick on, as you constantly hear me say, in all parts of our game.
“It’s genuine, it’s there, it’s obvious to see for us the levels that we need to get to, not just on the field but off the field as well.
“The players are very honest and it’d be wrong for us to waste a week and not progress.”
Quite how Ireland can rescale the heights of Marseille remains to be seen when such hot favourites (1/100 to win and 32 points on the handicap). But such is their constant quest for improvement that Farrell maintains that “loads” can be sharpened, even the near perfect foundations of last week’s victory, the lineout and the breakdown.
Needless to say, Paul O’Connell has been among those driving this.
“Our breakdown and lineout were outstanding last week, but that can get better,” said Farrell. “It can, and the proof is there for us to see. Paul did a review/preview yesterday, and our breakdown was immense against France. But you’d come away from that five minutes thinking that we were rubbish in that area.
“Just because it matters, it matters to show people what it means to be striving to get better. It’s been a hard enough week, because when you do win with a victory like that, you’re able to go, ‘No, that’s not the level’. Hopefully our ambition keeps driving us to keep on aspiring to get better anyway.”
Ireland have won 31 of the last 32 clashes, and the last dozen matches in a row between the countries, while they’ve also won the last 17 meetings on home soil. Furthermore, Ireland are constructing an unprecedented run of form in the Aviva Stadium, having won their last 16 Tests at home.
So, anything less than a commanding 17th would be both surprising and disappointing.
Ireland: Hugo Keenan (Leinster); Calvin Nash (Munster), Robbie Henshaw (Leinster), Stuart McCloskey (Ulster), James Lowe (Leinster); Jack Crowley (Munster), Craig Casey (Munster); Andrew Porter (Leinster), Dan Sheehan (Leinster), Finlay Bealham (Connacht); Joe McCarthy (Leinster), James Ryan (Leinster); Ryan Baird (Leinster), Caelan Doris (Leinster, capt), Jack Conan (Leinster).
Replacements: Rónan Kelleher (Leinster), Jeremy Loughman (Munster), Tom O’Toole (Ulster), Iain Henderson (Ulster), Josh van der Flier (Leinster), Jamison Gibson-Park (Leinster), Harry Byrne (Leinster), Jordan Larmour (Leinster).
Italy: Ange Capuozzo (Stade Toulousain); Lorenzo Pani (Zebre Parma), Juan Ignacio Brex (Benetton Rugby), Tommaso Menoncello (Benetton Rugby), Monty Ioane (Lyon), Paolo Garbisi (Montpellier), Stephen Varney (Gloucester): Danilo Fischetti (Zebre Parma) Gianmarco Lucchesi (Benetton Rugby), Pietro Ceccarelli (Perpignan), Niccolò Cannone (Benetton Rugby), Federico Ruzza (Benetton Rugby), Alessandro Izekor (Benetton Rugby), Manuel Zuliani (Benetton Rugby), Michele Lamaro (Benetton Rugby).
Replacements: Giacomo Nicotera (Benetton Rugby), Mirco Spagnolo (Benetton Rugby), Giosuè Zilocchi (Benetton Rugby), Andrea Zambonin (Zebre Parma), Ross Vintcent (Exeter), Martin Page-Relo (Lyon), Tommaso Allan (Perpignan), Federico Mori (Bayonne).
Referee: Luke Pearce (England)
Assistant Referees: Mathieu Raynal (France), Luc Ramos (France)
TMO: Eric Gauzins (France)
Ireland v Italy
Overall head-to-head: Played 36. Ireland 32 wins. Italy 4 wins.
Last five meetings:
(2020, 6N) Ireland 50 Italy 17 (Aviva Stadium).
(2021 6N) Italy 10 Ireland 48 (Stadio Olimpico).
(2022 6N) Ireland 57 Italy 6 (Aviva Stadium).
(2023, 6N) Italy 20 Ireland 34.
(2023, RWC warm-up) Ireland 36 Italy 17.
Betting (Paddy Power): 1/100 Ireland, 50/1 Draw, 40/1 Italy. Handicap odds (Italy |+32 pts) Evens Ireland, 16/1 Draw, Evens Ireland.
Forecast: Ireland to win by 20-25.
