If Toulouse think laterally in their analysis of Leinster’s game plan they have a strong chance of doing something they haven’t managed since 1997. That is, to win in Dublin.
The visitors cannot rely on tapes from last season’s quarter-final. That is already ancient history.
Instead, they must dissect the tactics France utilised during this season’s Six Nations clash against Ireland and ask themselves why that approach failed. In that wonderful match, the Irish team selection was dominated by Leinster players, while the French team was strongly populated with personnel from Toulouse.
The game plan Ireland have implemented brilliantly for the past two years draws heavily from the Leinster style play.
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February’s Six Nations Ireland versus France game was a classic. It became a festival of attacking play, with two great heavyweight teams standing toe-to-toe and trading rugby punches. Skill, courage, adventure and flair were on show in abundance. It was a sensational spectacle that was a joy to experience.
But, that being said, if I was to put on my grumpy old coach’s hat I’d be telling you that, despite the game being a thing of beauty, there is no doubt the French got their tactics horribly wrong.
The fact that Ireland outscored France by four tries to one is a testament to how wrong those French tactics were. France did not box clever. They tried to slug it out with an opponent who was faster, fitter and could hit harder. While it all made for great entertainment, it was not clever rugby.
During that match the ball was in play for 47 lung-busting minutes. The match produced only five scrums. In the modern game, scrums provide long stoppages in play that allow forwards to suck in oxygen. Fewer scrums mean less oxygen.
Both teams thought it would be in their interests not to kick for touch and keep the ball in play. As a result, there were fewer lineouts. Again, less time to suck in oxygen.
While both teams were exceptionally well-conditioned, there is no doubt that Irish players are a percentage ahead of the French players’ fitness levels. The French fell into the trap of attempting to compete with the high tempo of play Ireland set. With reduced time for the French players to recover and allow their heart rates to drop, Ireland’s superior fitness levels led to their victory.
Deeply fatigued, the French defensive system produced cracks that the Irish (and by definition Leinster’s) attacking system exploited. Irelands got their tactics spot on. France didn’t.
This week, Leinster will have a significant fitness advantage over Toulouse. If the Toulouse coach, Ugo Mola, is as smart as I think he is, he will have looked at the French tactics and learn a lesson. That is, do not get into an attacking slug fest with Leinster. Think tactically and box clever.
Historically, Toulouse are the greatest attacking club in France. Their blueprint for keeping the ball alive has underpinned all French attacks for over 50 years.
With their diminutive captain, Antoine Dupont, they possess the rugby world’s most potent offensive threat since the gargantuan strides of Jonah Lomu dominated the global stage.
When you factor in so many other sensational individuals such as Ntamack, Ramos, Marchant, and the extraordinarily athletic abilities of Thibaud Flament, named in the backrow for this game, Toulouse can win this match if they slow the match down to a tempo that suits them.
Toulouse must create stoppages in play that will allow them to drop their heart rates and prepare to go once again. Expect to see a lot of ‘injuries’.
The major tactical change I expect to see will be the Toulouse kicking strategy. Leinster will again opt against going for touch and try to find the space in the backfield, away from the running threat of the Toulouse fullback Thomas Ramos. This will force the Toulouse players to burn up oxygen as they retreat back in support.
This also has risks for Leinster.
At the Aviva in February when the French were trapped in such circumstances, they immediately ran the ball from outrageous positions. This attacking mindset created the sensational 85-metre counter-attacking try that ended with Damien Penaud diving over the line in the Landsdowne clubhouse corner.
While I have no doubt Toulouse will run the ball, they will also kick the ball into the stands. By getting the ball off the park far more often than France did – and creating more lineouts –Toulouse will be aiming to slow the game down to allow their forwards catch their breath.
Toulouse also should have done their homework on last season’s Champions Cup final. Ronan O’Gara’s tactics for La Rochelle players were to hold onto the ball for as long as possible and deny Leinster possession. La Rochelle forced Leinster to make 225 tackles, while the French side made a minuscule 88 on their way to victory.
If Toulouse hold possession and slow the game down they will stay deep in the fight.
Leinster at home in front of a packed Aviva are an awesome opponent. They are brilliantly coached by Leo Cullen, who will have his own plan to outrun the greatest running club in France.
As an organisation, Leinster are still carrying the hurt of how last season ended. And with a pack full of players who have experienced successes against France, England and South Africa they have debunked the much-propagated myth that they cannot defeat big packs.
Going all the way back to clashes at the beginning of this century at Donnybrook on Friday nights, this match will be another chapter in the long history of epic encounters between these two great clubs.
Allez Les Bleus.
