Recent history favours the French ...

The humiliations suffered at recent major championships may have played some part in motivating both teams to haul themselves through six games in four tough weeks in Germany but it will be the vivid memory of heartbreak in Rotterdam eight years ago that the Italians hope will spur them on to what would be their fourth world title.

At first glance, Italy look to have history firmly on their side with the Azzurri having won more than half of their 32 encounters with Les Blues down the years. The French, however, cheerfully scratch their heads and jokingly try to recall the last time they lost a competitive game to their rivals when the subject crops up. "Ah yes," grins one leading observer, "I think it was in Argentina." Since that day at Mar Del Plata in 1978, when goals by Paolo Rossi and Renato Zaccarelli enabled an Italian side that had gone behind in the first minute to score a narrow victory, there has been little but misery for the Italians in this particular derby tie.

In Mexico eight years later, the French recorded an emphatic win over their rivals thanks to goals from Michel Platini and Yannick Stopyra and after two friendlies in the mid-90s they edged a penalty shoot-out at the Stade de France in the quarter-finals of the 1998 World Cup.

The Italians could have few complaints that day in Paris where, as they had been in Mexico, they were awful, but two years on they were cruelly robbed of a European title they believed to be in the bag when Sylvian Wiltord grabbed a last-gasp equaliser in the final of Euro 2000 and the French wrapped things up in extra time thanks to David Trezuguet. The current squads each include several players from that night and this will be the first opportunity for the Italians to exact some revenge.

Formguides going back three decades should generally carry the sort of warnings squeezed in at the end of commercials for financial institutions with such long past results having no logical bearing on those in the future, but try telling that to supporters whose side has beaten Spain (who they had never lost to in a major championship), Brazil (two World Cup wins since they lost to the South Americans in 1958) and Portugal (a third straight semi-final win in only the third competitive game between the two countries) since emerging rather shakily from the group stages. The Italians, though, will be determined to reassert their historical supremacy over their neighbours and it is worth remembering that the defeat in Mexico City was the last time they lost a knock-out game at the World Cup in 90 minutes.

France could probably do with avoiding extra time this weekend but to do so they will have to get the better of a defence that is on the brink of breaking the record of just two goals conceded in a finals tournament; a mark, incidentally, set by the French in 1998. Those wishing to be guided by historical precedent should expect a narrow French win, in added time or a penalty shoot-out. Close followers of the two sides' respective performances since they arrived in Germany a month ago, however, might see an equally tight result but one that favours the Italians as the most likely outcome.

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