Constituency name: Dublin Central
Seats: Four
Current TDs: Mary Lou McDonald (Sinn Féin), Gary Gannon (Social Democrats), Marie Sherlock (Labour). Vacant seat was held by Paschal Donohoe (Fine Gael).
Area covered: The constituency covers the north inner city, stretching from North Wall Quay to Arran Quay (just before the Phoenix Park). It also includes parts of Cabra, Glasnevin and Drumcondra.
RM Block
Why is there a vacancy? Donohoe, who had held a seat here since 2011, triggered the byelection when he announced his resignation from politics late last year to take up a role with the World Bank.
Candidates: Sinn Féin‘s candidate is Janice Boylan, a long-time councillor who was party leader McDonald’s running mate in the 2024 general election. Fine Gael has selected Lord Mayor of Dublin Ray McAdam, with fellow councillors Daniel Ennis, Janet Horner and John Stephens nominated by the Social Democrats, Green Party and Fianna Fáil respectively. Independent councillor Malachy Steenson, who has been active on anti-immigration issues, is also contesting. The wildcard here is Independent candidate and veteran criminal Gerry Hutch, who came close to winning the fourth and final seat in the 2024 general election. Other candidates include Eoghan Ó Ceannabháin (People Before Profit), Ruth O’Dea (Labour) and Ian Noel Smyth (Aontú).
Key issues: Sinn Féin has signalled it intends to put the cost of living at the centre of its campaign and issues raised during the recent fuel protests could emerge as a key theme. Dublin Central is one of the few constituencies with the potential for a genuine left-right divide. It had one of the highest rates of spoilt votes in last year’s presidential election, with some of the invalid ballot papers featuring anti-immigration sentiments.
Likely outcome: There are high expectations for Sinn Féin given the byelection is taking place in the party leader’s constituency. This will be a true test of the strength of the party’s popularity there. Of the Coalition parties, Fine Gael probably has the stronger candidate in McAdam, but byelections tend to be difficult for government candidates, particularly this time in the wake of the fuel protests and how they were handled. Ennis has been tipped as a possible frontrunner due to his standing as one of the stronger candidates from the left-wing parties. Hutch’s strong showing in his first electoral outing in 2024 highlighted the potential for an anti-establishment or protest vote in Dublin Central. If that cohort turns out in good numbers, it would make the result harder to call.
Wider political implications: The loss of what had been a Fine Gael seat would reduce the Government’s Dáil majority, which recently took a hit when Michael and Danny Healy-Rae withdrew their support over its handling of the fuel protests. While the Coalition leaders may seek to manage expectations ahead of what could be regarded as a referendum on the Government, it is notable that Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin has already survived two heave attempts in the last year. A poor result for his party could trigger further discussions about his continued leadership. Though Sinn Féin tends to be less openly vocal with critiques of its leader, a bad result in McDonald’s backyard would raise questions for the main Opposition party, particularly given the campaign is likely to focus on the cost of living, one of its bread-and-butter issues.
