Election 2024

‘We’re good at getting people on electoral register but not so good at getting them off’

Efforts to modernise and fix ‘work of fiction’ register will take time before ‘big health warning’ on turnout figures no longer needed

Electoral register: People arrive to cast their votes at in Co Louth. Photograph: Mark Marlow/PA
Electoral register: People arrive to cast their votes at in Co Louth. Photograph: Mark Marlow/PA
Marie O'Halloran
Wed Dec 04 2024 - 13:07

After the 2019 European election, academic Michael Marsh described the official turnout figures as a “work of fiction”.

The political science professor said these should always carry a “big health warning” as he expressed frustration at repeated failures by governments over the decades to take action and establish a commission to rectify matters.

In February of last year, the Electoral Commission was finally established. But it has a long road ahead of it until the register and turnout no longer need such a health warning.

This was confirmed by the commission’s chief executive Art O’Leary, who acknowledged on Tuesday that as many as 500,000 names could be on the register that should not be, either through duplication or people having died.

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Speaking on RTÉ radio’s Morning Ireland, O’Leary said the official 59.7 per cent figure was “a very blunt measure by which to judge public engagement”. With 500,000 additional names potentially on the register, “then our turnout was probably 10 per cent more than we think”.

The register is actually 31 separate registers run by local authorities who all act independently. The commission has started a project to create a single database using dates of births and eircodes to identify duplicate polling cards. A public awareness campaign resulted in 433,000 new voters being added to the register.

Political scientist and Dublin City University professor Jane Suiter said “we’re good at getting people on the register but we’re not so good at getting them off”.

“There’s lots of spare votes floating around the place of people who’ve emigrated and people who’ve moved away or people who might even be registered in a couple of places,” she added.

“I think the Electoral Commission’s first task was to focus on getting people on the register but they’re going to have to actually focus on getting it right as well. That’s one of their longer-term jobs.”

The constituency with the lowest turnout, Dublin Bay South, where just 47.77 per cent voted, is one of the State’s most affluent. It and Dublin South-Central (49.07 per cent) were the only constituencies with turnouts below 50 per cent.

Labour leader Ivana Bacik, a Dublin Bay South TD, said the figures may be skewed by the fact constituency “has one of the highest rates” of households in private rental accommodation.

“It’s nearly 50 per cent of the electorate,” she said. “So traditionally we have had lower turnouts because people are more likely to move around more in the constituency.”

Years ago, Bacik said, the local authority used to “have people coming around to the door to check if people were on the register” and “that’s the kind of labour-intensive work that really needs to be done”.

Celebrity also appears to be a factor in at least two of the four constituencies where turnout increased. Dublin Central has consistently had poor voter interest. The presence of Gerry ‘The Monk’ Hutch in the campaign generated significant media coverage and turnout rose from 51.2 per cent in 2020 to 52.27 per cent.

There was a slightly smaller increase, almost half of 1 per cent, in Galway West where TV personality Gráinne Seoige unsuccessfully ran for Fianna Fáil in an attempt to succeed party veteran Éamon Ó Cuív. Turnout went from 58 per cent to 58.48.

Neighbouring Galway East saw a slight rise from 61.9 per cent to 62.17 per cent. The old five-seat Tipperary constituency had a turnout of 65 per cent. In the new three-seat Tipperary North area it rose to 65.57 per cent but dropped to 60.61 per cent in Tipperary South.

An Electoral Commission survey after June’s local elections found 42 per cent of people did not vote either because they had no interest in politics, did not know who to vote for or felt their vote did not matter.

The commission plans a long-term information and education programme for schools and colleges and groups who do not normally engage, including young people, immigrants and Travellers.

Suiter said as well as people moving from one apartment to another and being registered in both, another factor is “a lot of people have emigrated and how long they stay away” is a factor.

Irish citizens can vote for up to 18 months while living abroad and among the proposals to encourage voter participation is to allow postal voting for five years. Ireland is an EU outlier, with postal voting restricted to groups such as Defence Forces serving abroad, diplomats and people working abroad for a period.

Complaints have been made by voters who booked holidays in advance and pregnant women who knew they would be going into labour, exemplified by Social Democrats leader Holly Cairns, who could not vote as her baby was born on election day.

Suggestions have been made for Saturday or two-day voting to give people with work or childcare commitments extra time to turnout or to allow students to get home to vote. In Britain, students in college accommodation are automatically given a form to register there or for a postal vote for their home constituency.

The commission has an October 2026 deadline to have its single database of voters in place, but it remains to be seen if the planned changes will have a positive impact on voter engagement at the next general election.

Marie O'Halloran

Marie O'Halloran

Marie O'Halloran is Parliamentary Correspondent of The Irish Times