Election 2024Analysis

Election result is not the straightforward success story Sinn Féin are selling

Overall first-preference vote for Sinn Féin drops more than five percentage points from 2020 general election

Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald celebrating with party colleagues after being elected in Dublin Central at the RDS count centre on Saturday. Photograph: Paul Faith/AFP via Getty Images
Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald celebrating with party colleagues after being elected in Dublin Central at the RDS count centre on Saturday. Photograph: Paul Faith/AFP via Getty Images
Jennifer Bray's picture
Jennifer Bray
Mon Dec 02 2024 - 06:00

On Saturday evening a stampede of cameramen and journalists rushed to the entrance of the RDS hall as Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald’s car pulled up outside.

As she made her way into the hall where counting was taking place for a number of Dublin constituencies, McDonald was flanked by Northern Ireland First Minister Michelle O’Neill and Councillor Janice Boylan. As she pushed her way into the arena against a growing crowd the media scrum crushed in on itself in an effort to get the best shot of McDonald.

Putting two hands in front of herself, she said: “please don’t crush. We will talk to all of you.” In the background one Sinn Féin supporter remarked to another: “this is great. Let’s put her back in the car and do this all over again.”

The hype around McDonald was heightened by the fact that she appeared to be in celebratory form as she thanked “every single person right across this State who came out to vote for Sinn Féin – you have given us a powerful and strong mandate, and we understand the trust that you have placed in us to make life better for you. This has been an incredible performance by all of our candidates,” she said.

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Yet as the dust settles on the 2024 general election it’s clear that the picture is not quite as rosy as the scenes in the RDS might suggest.

Firstly, the overall first preference vote for Sinn Féin has dropped by more than five percentage points from the 2020 election – from 24.5 per cent in 2020 to 19 per cent.

McDonald has also talked up the prospect of her party holding government formation talks with other parties of the left even though the numbers are evidentially not there.

Looking at the party’s performance on a deeper level, an analysis of the constituencies that had finished counting on Sunday shows a definite cooling of support.

Take for example Cork East, where in 2020 Pat Buckley swept the boards with a thumping first preference vote of 23 per cent, raking in 12,587 votes. In this weekend’s election Sinn Féin’s share of the first preference vote had dropped here to 13.7 per cent, with Buckley taking 5,901 votes on the first count, less than half of what he achieved previously.

In Dublin North-West in 2020 Dessie Ellis took more than 44 per cent of the first-preference vote with 14,375 votes. This time he ran alongside Cathleen Carney Boyd and together they took 30.7 per cent of the first preference vote, with Ellis taking 5,562 votes on the first count – a far cry from the barnstorming performance he put in previously.

In Tipperary in 2020 Martin Browne took 12.23 per cent of the first preference vote, with 10,000 votes in the bag on the first count. This time he collected half of that with 4,937 votes and lost his seat on Sunday afternoon. Although strategists were always anxious about Browne’s seat, a trend still emerges of a party which is not replicating its quota-smashing performance of 2020.

A similar situation unfolded in Dublin Bay North. In 2020 Denise Mitchell commanded 29.81 per cent of the first-preference vote and a humongous 21,344 votes. This time the share of the first-preference vote was 19.7 per cent, with Mitchell failing to meet the quota on the first count and taking in 9,012 votes. She was still edging towards the finish line as of the 10th count on Sunday night.

There was another upset for the party when Eoin Hayes, a Social Democrats Kimmage-Rathmines councillor, overtook Chris Andrews in Dublin Bay South to win the final seat there.

In Dublin Central Mary Lou McDonald failed to get her running mate Councillor Janice Boylan across the line, something which only one year ago would have been a real prospect for Sinn Féin.

Then there are the constituencies where Sinn Féin had to deal with the fallout from controversies which rumbled on throughout the month of October. In 2020 in Laois-Offaly Brian Stanley topped the poll with 24 per cent of the first-preference vote. In a shock development Stanley left the party in October over a dispute about how Sinn Féin handled a complaint against him. A Sinn Féin draft report into a complaint made against him came to the opinion that his conduct in an incident constituted “sexual harassment”, something he strongly denied. This weekend Stanley was re-elected as an Independent candidate on the eighth count in the Laois constituency, with the Sinn Féin candidate Maria McCormack losing out.

There were brighter moments, however. In Waterford clever vote management saw both David Cullinane and Conor McGuinness elected. In Galway East, Louis O’Hara polled well and took the extra seat that was on offer. In the new constituency of Wicklow Wexford, Gorey teacher Fionntán Ó Súilleabháin took one of three seats.

In Cavan-Monaghan, Matt Carthy, Cathy Bennett and Pauline Tully were all polling strong on Sunday night. But in Sligo Leitrim, where Sinn Féin might have eyed up a gain beyond the seat held by Martin Kenny, the tide was going out for Chris McManus.

Then there were the constituencies where Sinn Féin only months ago held on to ambitions to win three seats – areas like Dublin Mid West and Donegal. Those ambitions were quietly shelved in recent months as the party struggled to regain its footing after a disastrous local election where Sinn Féin took less than 12 per cent of the national vote.

In the last four years Sinn Féin has set out to convince the electorate that change was needed. McDonald promised her party would be the strongest opposition party in the history of the State, capable of fielding a team that would eventually enter government. Viewed against this summer’s local electoral performance strategists may be breathing a sigh of relief. But viewed against the place Sinn Féin was in over a year ago, peaking in the mid-30s in the polls, the result of the 2024 general election is not the straightforward success story that newly elected TDs are selling in count centres around the country. Viewed against the ambitions they set for themselves after the last election the result is a disaster.

Even with a sizeable chunk of seats – possibly somewhere around the 40 mark – Sinn Féin is now facing another five years in opposition. In other parties a conversation around the party leadership would be gathering steam. Any such rumblings, if they are happening, will be behind closed doors in Sinn Féin.

The party will also have to consider its strategy for the next five years and whether it can realistically continue to champion a message of change when the dial remains broadly in the same place as it was in 2020.