While parties on the left of the political spectrum spent much of Saturday arguing that the Irish people were weary of the same old politics, Friday’s vote tells quite a different story.
The most striking aspect of the results is how similar they are to those of the 2020 general election. This was not a change election and, in contrast to international trends, there has been no incumbency penalty for Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael.
The combined first-preference vote for both parties remains virtually unchanged at 42.7 per cent. In contrast, the combined total for the five parties of the centre-left and left is hovering under 35 per cent.
Fine Gael now appears set to secure an unprecedented fourth consecutive term in government. What explains this remarkable success?
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The Irish Times/RTÉ/TG4/TCD exit poll provides us with some initial insights into this question. In particular, the data allows us to explore whether this is Ireland’s version of “it’s the economy, stupid”.
Theories of pocketbook politics, more formally known as egotropic voting, suggest that voters are heavily influenced by their own personal finances when they cast their ballot.
Is there evidence for this self-interested voting in our data? Did the citizens of Ireland evaluate the performance of Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, over the past 4½ years, based on their own economic situation and reward them accordingly?
In Friday’s exit poll, 1,281 respondents were asked the following question: “Over the past 12 months, has your standard of living improved, stayed the same, or worsened?”
In response, nearly two-thirds – 65 per cent – reported that their economic situation had either remained stable or improved, likely reflecting increased public expenditure, additional social protection measures and a very generous budget.
While a direct comparison with the 2020 general election is not possible due to rather different question wording in the two exit polls, it is still interesting to note that, when asked whether they agreed with the statement “I have benefited from the improvements in the economy in recent years”, only 36 per cent of respondents answered in the affirmative at the time.
Perhaps surprisingly, and in spite of the challenges of the Covid years and recent cost-of-living pressures, the public’s mood seems to be rather more optimistic this time round.
The relationship, revealed in the data, between first-preference votes and individuals’ perception of their own economic situation is striking. While only 24 per cent of Fianna Fáil voters and 20 per cent of Fine Gael voters reported that their standard of living had worsened, the figures were much higher for People Before Profit-Solidarity and Sinn Féin, at 48 and 49 per cent respectively.
Only 7 per cent of Sinn Féin voters felt they were better off than they were a year ago, in contrast to the 18 per cent who gave Fianna Fáil their first preference.
Moreover, there is a very strong correlation between personal circumstances and coalition preferences. Another question put to the same respondents asked them to select their preferred coalition from a list of six options, which represented the most feasible alternatives.
[ Election 2024 results: The winners and losers from day one of countOpens in new window ]
The results clearly demonstrate that those who feel their standard of living has improved over the past 12 months strongly favour the two main parties returning to office.
Among respondents who reported an improvement in their economic circumstances, some 55 per cent supported a Fianna Fáil-Fine Gael government.
When including the options of a Fianna Fáil-Fine Gael-Independent coalition or a Fianna Fáil-Fine Gael-third party coalition, 73 per cent of those who felt their economic situation had improved chose one of these combinations.
Furthermore, a majority of respondents (57 per cent) who felt their standard of living was much the same as a year ago, also opted for one of these coalition alternatives.
In contrast, while a Sinn Féin-led coalition, without either Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael, is certainly more popular among those who feel their economic circumstances have worsened, the relationship is not particularly strong. Only 33 per cent of respondents in this category favoured a Sinn Féin-led left-wing coalition.
Perhaps reflecting a broader disaffection with political parties and the political system, nearly as many of these respondents (30 per cent) favoured an alternative undefined option, opting for the response of a coalition of “something else”.
Ireland is almost unique among European democracies in that it has never had a left-wing prime minister, and it now seems highly unlikely that this will change in the 34th Dáil.
Fully understanding the behaviour of Irish voters in 2024 will require much deeper analysis and more comprehensive data than what an exit poll can, realistically, provide.
However, while we await the results of the Electoral Commission’s National Election and Democracy Study, there is clear evidence suggesting that Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have defied international trends by successfully managing the economy and maintaining public trust to continue doing so in the future.
Gail McElroy is a politics professor at Trinity College Dublin
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