Unless the Government parties learn to perfect the trick of the five loaves and two fishes over the next 2½ years, the likelihood is that Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald will be taoiseach after the next general election.
Poll ratings since 2020 have been consistent — Sinn Féin is on an upward trajectory, unlike the other larger parties.
McDonald’s team met for its parliamentary party ‘away day’ at the CHQ in Dublin on Tuesday. ‘Away day’ was a bit of misnomer given it took place less than a kilometre from the Dáil, where business resumes on Wednesday following the summer break.
The party leader had just returned from a trip to San Francisco, where she met Silicon Valley bosses and House of Representatives speaker Nancy Pelosi. She also gave an address on building a new and united Ireland at the University of San Francisco (how taoiseach-in-waiting is all that?).
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Sinn Féin has adopted a three-pronged approach as the main Opposition party. The first part, unsurprisingly, has been calling for a Border poll and the wider message of a United Ireland. In this it has been consistent and unwavering and for any party willing to go into coalition with it after the next election this will be the non-negotiable part.
The second is a strategy of out-and-out populist opposition. Taoiseach Micheál Martin complained on Monday that every time the Coalition promises, say, €2 billion in spending, Sinn Féin will pledge €3 billion. Auction politics is not a new theme among Opposition parties, with Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael having indulged in it at various times in the past.
There’s a limit to it, though, and Sinn Féin has been hovering close to it for some time. As the next general election moves closer, it will have to grapple with the proposition of having to deliver on some of its more optimistic promises.
For example, its budget and cost-of-living package is going to be huge. It’s already committed to €3.8 billion of spending in its alternative cost-of-living package, which includes once-off measures that deal only with the crisis. It includes a subvention to energy companies and a windfall tax (details to be worked out) at the other end.
The party has committed to keeping energy prices at June 2021 prices until next February. That would mean the State paying €1.6 billion to energy companies, a serious outlay by any yardstick.
Among the measures outlined at the think-in were: an energy credit for workers earning less than €70,000 (worth a maximum of €500); a double child benefit payment in October; further cuts in excise duties on petrol and diesel; cutting of the bottom two USC rates and a raising of the threshold.
The surge in corporation tax revenue, plus €2 billion remaining in the Covid-19 reserve fund, allows for such spending this year. The problem is what happens if the energy inflation phenomenon is not temporary but continues well into next year?
The third part of the Sinn Féin approach has been one of persuasion — namely that it will not do a St Patrick and drive businesses and individuals from these shores as soon as it gets into government. The party has been working hard to persuade industry in particular that it will be responsible in office — part of McDonald’s trip to Silicon Valley would have involved her giving reassurances in that vein.
That’s the trickiest part of the strategy. For one, it does not align to its populist approach to opposition because — by definition — it will involve the party moderating some policies, and continuing its slow draw towards the centre-left.
This would create difficulties as it would mean backsliding on promises made, the inevitable consequence of which is a loss of electoral support. That’s still some way down the road, however, and can be addressed closer to 2025.
