Civil war on two, if not three, fronts in the Conservative Party. The resignation of Work and Pensions Secretary Iain Duncan Smith (IDS) could not come at a worse time for Prime Minister David Cameron.
Already exposed to fire on Brexit from a significant number of his cabinet, Cameron faces an all-out assault on a central plank of his version of the party’s claim to the allegiance of the British public – modern “compassionate conservatism” and the claim too be a one-nation party.
And the subtext of the resignation is without doubt also linked to a longer game – the replacement sooner or later of the PM, and the determination by right wing Tory MPs to ensure that Chancellor George Osborne’s chances are hobbled. His handling of several recent “crises” and perceptions of a “callous” cutback strategy has made him many enemies on the backbenches.
The claim that Osborne has abandoned social fairness in the interests of deficit reduction, cutting benefits to vulnerable disabled people, while reducing taxes on the wealthy, has all the hallmarks of a straightforward Labour charge.
That it should come from the heart of the beast, a key member of the cabinet and architect of Tory welfare reform, gives it all the more devastating credibility. There are key sections of the Tory electorate with which the charge of unfairness and class bias resonates.
Duncan Smith, an ardent Eurosceptic, has been accused of timing his departure to give maximum comfort to the Brexit cause of weakening Cameron. But what was striking about his farewell interview on the Andrew Marr Show on Sunday – the Guardian saw it, perhaps overstating the case, as "one of the most powerful personal statements in political history" – was the genuine depth of his passion about welfare reform. Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar, Sigmund Freud is supposed to have observed – and we needn't look for other, hidden meaning.
IDS is no bleeding heart liberal of the Labour ilk but, it seems, a determined visionary of a Tory welfarism which balances compassion – not too much – with economic efficiency. He genuinely believes that a recast system can be turned from an instrument of poverty alleviation into an engine for getting people back to work. And, unlike most politicians these days, he is prepared to put his ministerial career on the line for his view.
That he should have waited so long, until after the latest budget last week, and indeed until some of the key cuts were withdrawn in the face of public uproar, has lent currency to the charge by fellow Tories of hypocrisy.
But “they would say that wouldn’t they”, and Duncan Smith claims he has been on the brink of resignation several times over. This was the final straw – and Osborne is still insisting on taking a further £4.5 billion out of his department over the next five years.