The photograph on the front page of yesterday's Irish Times brought me back to a beach near Izmir in Turkey last month. The beach I went to was littered with shoes, backpacks and packaging for outboard motors and life-jackets.
Picking through the debris of Syria’s awful war, I could only imagine the anxiety of parents as they loaded their children into boats. I was told that smugglers would take no more than six children on each boat and that children under five went for free.
Yesterday’s picture also put in mind the restless anger that we all felt at the photo of Alan Kurdi last September. Somehow the mood has changed. Politicians and the media are now focused on how to deal with two “problems” – the refugee problem and the Islamic State problem.
But if both were comprehensively dealt with tomorrow this would take you back to summer 2014, before Islamic State, also known as Isis, had captured great swathes of territory in Syria and Iraq, and before the tide of refugees arrived in Europe.
Back then, the conflict in Syria had already been accepted as the worst humanitarian crisis since the end of the cold war and the worst refugee crisis since the second World War.
It must be obvious that the two issues (Islamic State and refugees) are downstream consequences of the original source of these problems: the government of Bashar al-Assad. To paraphrase Winston Churchill, even if the deluge of refugees was to subside and even if Islamic State was to be defeated, what would emerge would be the integrity of that originating quarrel.
In spite of this, and informed by the obsession with refugees and Islamic State, insufficient attention has been directed towards resolution of the conflict. Some voices are even calling for Assad to be part of the solution.
Disastrous models of succession
In support of this viewpoint, frequently cited are the examples of the turmoil in
Libya
and Iraq following the fall of Col Muammar Gadafy and
Saddam Hussein
respectively. Clearly these disastrous models of succession are not to be recommended. But to even contemplate a future Syria with the house of Assad still in charge is Pollyannaism in the extreme.
It is clearly in Assad’s interests that the West focuses on Islamic State, so much so that the recent Russian military intervention that purports to target Islamic State has targeted all anti-Assad targets bar Islamic State.
Solutions across the European Union must be found for the absence of EU solidarity on refugee intake. But perspective is important. If I told you that the population of the EU had increased in 2015 by 0.2 per cent you would probably think that that was a bit low and a strong indicator of the difficult demographic problems that lie ahead for our ageing population. More than a million refugees and migrants arrived in Europe in 2015. That is 0.2 per cent of the population of the EU. Notwithstanding this, the EU finds itself unable to cope. Fundamental freedoms, Schengen and all the principles of solidarity that form the basis for the EU are under pressure because of what Peter Sutherland referred to before Christmas as "ruinously selfish behaviour".
German chancellor Angela Merkel’s policies can succeed only if her generosity is matched by other member states.
One hundred and fifty thousand migrants came to Ireland in 2007 alone (net migration was more than 100,000). We coped well with that number and significant numbers in the years previously.
While times have changed, the economic recovery looks real and sustainable. It is incredible to hear Irish politicians say we should bear in mind there are still people on housing lists, as though we should wait until all social problems have been addressed before demonstrating solidarity with those fleeing crippling violence.
If that argument was applied in Turkey and Lebanon, where would Syrians go? There are four million Syrian refugees in countries in the region. Is it good enough to say to Turkey: "Tough luck, they landed in your country?" Burden-sharing is the core of multilateralism.
Election manifestos
As we approach election season in Ireland, manifestos should have clear policies on the issue of Ireland’s place in this debate. There will be a sense of trying to avoid politicising the issue. Such an approach would be mistaken. This is the compelling issue of our time. It is important that serious political comment is made on issues such as integration and migration generally.
And there are many positive proposals that should be looked at.
First, after our special pleading at COP21, we should re-establish our multilateral credentials and drive hard for an international summit on migration and displaced populations, fed by citizens’ forums at which issues around integration and diversity could be addressed.
Second, while Ireland’s peace process in not necessarily transferable, many lessons can be learned from our experience of the institutions and political economy of peace and reconciliation. Along with our status as a non-belligerent EU member state we have credibility and we should use it.
Most of all we should continue to look at the Syrian conflict through a humanitarian lens and not through the lens of border security.
Barry Andrews is chief executive of Goal