In 2019, at the World Economic Forum in Davos, then 16-year old Greta Thunberg demanded that world leaders act as if their house was on fire. How ironic, then, that a fire forced the evacuation of delegates at Cop30 on Thursday just as Colombia was about to hold a press conference on its “roadmap” proposal to phase out fossil fuels.
No one was injured, but the incident was a stark reminder of human vulnerability: rhetoric and good intentions are useless when flames are approaching.
Ten years after the signing of the Paris Agreement, global emissions have still not peaked. At current rates of fossil fuel use, there are just three or four years left before the world blows through the carbon budget for 1.5 degrees. Wind and solar are still not displacing fossil fuels and instead meeting rising energy demand. The earth systems that we rely on for our survival are all under extreme pressure.
We should, as Thunberg said in 2019, be panicking.
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However, the daily reports from Cop30 point to convoluted agendas, overlapping processes and texts that have hundreds of square brackets – denoting there is not yet agreement – despite weeks of negotiations. The final outcomes often result in bland formulations of intent or buck-passing to the next Cop.
One reason for the painfully slow progress is that each country comes to the Cop with a list of red lines based on national interests. Ireland’s list always includes protecting agricultural exports. State sovereignty is viewed as an entitlement for fossil fuel producing nations to exercise a veto in climate negotiations. It is also the reason why there is no mechanism to block a country from exploiting its fossil fuel reserves or to take action to reduce its climate impact. True to form, Saudi Arabia and other oil producing states have been behind diplomatic manoeuvres at this Cop to ensure that no commitment to a “roadmap” to phase down fossil fuels will be included in the final decision.
What is the point then, of Cop at all?
The Paris Agreement is still the best proof that co-ordinated global action is possible. Its great achievement was to build a legal framework around what are essentially voluntary climate commitments. A growing body of law is emerging to scaffold these commitments and turn them into real policies, for example, the EU’s Green Deal and Ireland’s 2021 climate law.
Despite being radically insufficient when measured against the adaptation and emissions gaps identified by UN agencies, the international talks that are held each year do nudge things forward a little bit. And despite the vague language, Cop decisions still have the effect of “soft” law.
At this conference, many countries, including Ireland, have come together to push for strong action on fossil fuels and climate finance. Brazil has used its presidency to launch of a new Tropical Forests Finance Facility which aims to raise $125 billion to support forest conservation efforts in 74 countries. The Climate and Clean Air Coalition, involving former Green Party minister Eamon Ryan, has been mobilising funding to support developing countries cut methane from oil and gas facilities. These side deals often have greater impact than the main body of the Cop talks.
Cop27 at Sharm El-Sheik established a loss and damage mechanism for the first time. At the Baku Cop last year, delegates agreed to mobilise $1.3 trillion each year by 2035 to support developing countries. Funding is a critical lever in these talks, however the “Baku to Belém roadmap” has been bogged down with the usual disagreements about what “counts” as climate finance. The first global stocktake in Dubai in 2023 calling for a fossil fuels “phase down”, which was the first time that fossil fuels were even mentioned in a cover decision. And an alliance of over 80 countries has come together at Cop30 to push for a roadmap to phase out fossil fuels.
International jurisprudence is catching up too. The International Court of Justice earlier this year published an advisory opinion warning that states have legal obligations under general international law, including a duty to prevent “significant harm to the environment”. On the first day of the Cop, 25 UN experts released a joint statement calling for “full compliance” with the ICJ ruling, along with a ban on fossil fuel lobbyists and more transparency as crucial steps in achieving just climate action.
Against that, the US government’s sabotage of the global plastics and shipping treaties earlier this year were devastating blows for multilateral environmental action. But Trump cannot crash the Paris Agreement all by himself, and the absence of the US delegation at Cop means the others can get on with the job, with China now exerting more economic influence over climate policy than the US.
As China takes the global lead in green technology, the world system is rearranging itself into two camps: those countries that are spearheading decarbonisation and those that are clinging to dirty fossil fuels by any means necessary. Whether this will lead to a Hobson’s choice between eco-authoritarianism favoured by China, or petrostate authoritaria sm preferred by the US and Saudi Arabia remains to be seen.
Cop nonetheless serves as an annual opportunity to mobilise public opinion and media coverage at a time of unprecedented misinformation. The Brazilian presidency permitted activists to stage demonstrations, the first since the Glasgow Cop in 2021. It has also given indigenous people the opportunity to be heard.
On the other side, intense lobbying took place throughout on the sidelines. The media outlet De Smog reported that over 300 lobbyists from the intensive livestock sector were present at Cop30, along with an incredible 1,600 lobbyists from fossil fuel industries outnumbering all the delegations apart from Brazil’s. The media presence puts a spotlight on the many delegations, Ireland’s included, that present themselves as the good guys on the global stage, while supporting LNG terminals and data centres at home. New Zealand has been called out by activists as “fossil of the day” for weakening its methane target, and Canada has been heavily criticised for rolling back its climate policies.
We should brace ourselves for more dithering, tokenism and denial.
As the negotiations went down to the wire once again at the time of writing, it’s clearer than ever that Cop is not a solution for a planetary crisis – because its structures are not designed to respond to that crisis, but to the priorities of nation states, many of whom are deeply compromised as fossil fuel producers and exporters.
If there are any grounds for hope, it is because the resurgent climate movement, which marched everywhere around the world last Saturday, will not tolerate more inaction and delay while the fires and floods threaten the lives and livelihoods of billions.
Sadhbh O’ Neill is a climate and environmental researcher, the Irish representative on the Council of the European Environmental Bureau, and the project lead for Feminist Communities for Climate Justice. She stood in the 2024 general election for the Labour Party and the TCD Seanad election in 2025.
