I first met Emmanuel Macron in 2013, when he was a wonkish adviser to then-president François Hollande, at a lunch held by the Presidential Press Association.
One quote stands out in my notes from that encounter: “The French elect a monarch, then they want to chop his head off,” Macron said.
Four years later, Macron became the youngest-ever president of the republic, the wunderkind who slayed the dragon of the far-right. Today, he is a visibly older, careworn and failed politician.
Macron’s seventh prime minister in eight years resigned on Monday morning. There is one constant in the chaos and confusion which have followed: visceral rejection of Macron as a person.
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The French don’t care that he has shown courage and determination in defying Russian aggression and led the push at the United Nations (UN) for recognition of a Palestinian state. They simply don’t like him.
The outgoing prime minister, Sébastien Lecornu, tried for 27 days to form a new cabinet after the previous government collapsed over unpopular austerity measures. On Sunday evening, the Élysée finally announced the composition of the new government.
Three-quarters of ministers in the shortest-lived government in French history, 12 out of 18, were recycled from the previous government. Five of the 18 were from the neo-Gaullist conservative party Les Républicains (LR). The government fell 14 hours later because Bruno Retailleau, the LR leader and interior minister, jumped ship on the grounds his party had been short-changed.
The present instability is the direct result of Macron’s decision to dissolve the National Assembly in June 2024. By calling an early election, Macron hoped to regain his lost majority.
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Instead, a bloc of left, far-left and environmentalist parties led the poll, with Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (RN) coming a close second. Macron’s centre-right Ensemble formed a wobbly coalition with LR. Macron has since appointed three right-wing and centre-right prime ministers.
Macron’s refusal to “cohabit” with a prime minister from the left or far-right led both factions to claim he violated the most fundamental principle of democracy.
This democratic, economic and institutional crisis may be the most serious since Charles de Gaulle founded the Fifth Republic in 1958, when France tore itself apart over the Algerian war of independence. This time, there is no de Gaulle to come to the rescue.
France’s debt has mushroomed to €3.3 trillion, the third highest in Europe in terms of debt to GDP ratio. Much of it accrued during the Covid crisis, when Macron and then finance minister Bruno Le Maire vowed to spend “whatever it takes” to shore up the economy.
The debt is fuelled by a cradle-to-the grave welfare system, lavish public spending and a political class who live like pre-revolution aristocracy.
As the country stares into the void this week, much outrage has focused on the privileges of government, including the €48,000 bonus paid to outgoing prime ministers and the €28,000 indemnity paid to outgoing cabinet ministers.
The crisis is also about petty quarrels and outsized political ambition, whetted by the prospect of the 2027 presidential election.
In his resignation speech, Lecornu criticised “politicians who care more about their party than their country”. It was a reference to Retailleau, who brought down the government he served in protest at the appointment of Le Maire as defence minister. “I spent 90 minutes with Macron,” Retailleau complained. “Not once did he mention Le Maire.”
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Lecornu, Retailleau and Le Maire all came from the conservative LR party. Retailleau reproaches Le Maire for joining forces with Macron in 2017, whereas he, Retailleau, held out until last year. To placate Retailleau, Le Maire said he would not take office. Retailleau said his party would nonetheless boycott the government, then changed his mind overnight.
Macron asked Lecornu to negotiate for another 48 hours, until this evening, in the hope of establishing “a platform for action and stability”. Lecornu in effect resigned a second time, saying he does not want to be prime minister regardless of what happens. It is difficult to see how Lecornu can achieve in 48 hours what he was unable to do in 27 days.
There are four possible outcomes to this crisis, in ascending order of probability:
- The far-left leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon has obtained 109 signatures on a parliamentary motion to depose Macron. Mélenchon is unlikely to persuade the requisite two-thirds of deputies and senators to drive Macron out of office.
- Macron could resign, a possibility he has always excluded. Edouard Philippe, who was Macron’s first prime minister, and who declared his own presidential candidacy 13 months ago, yesterday asked Macron to call an early presidential election.
- Macron could dissolve the National Assembly, again. This would suit Le Pen, who needs time to appeal her conviction for the misuse of EU funds before the 2027 presidential election. Polls show Le Pen’s RN would win about 33 per cent of seats in an early election, making it by far the largest contingent.
- Macron could name his eighth prime minister. Socialists and environmentalists demand he appoint someone from their ranks. Le Pen yesterday vowed to bring down any prime minister Macron appoints.
If no solution is found by this evening, the Élysée says Macron will “assume his responsibilities” – an apparent threat to call an early election that would punish LR and the Socialists and constitute one more step on Le Pen’s march to power.
