You can bet your bottom dollar (if you’re still in that currency) that the various intelligence agencies will be concentrating their resources on ascertaining the negotiation agendas in the upcoming talks on Donald Trump’s tariff war. The European Union is – when it comes to the security of its negotiation process – at a considerable disadvantage compared to other big players such as the US and China.
Arriving at a joint position among so many member states will be difficult. But bearing in mind that each member state has its own political and advisory infrastructure, it will be almost impossible for the EU to sit down in Washington and negotiate across a table without the US already having a fair insight into its bargaining strategy and willingness to make concessions.
So when we read in EU newspapers of briefings given to their political correspondents, what is on the record and what is off the record can easily become known to inquisitive US interlocutors.
We know that Israeli intelligence agencies have developed technology to penetrate private telephone conversations and messaging. No doubt Binyamin Netanyahu will make any useful intelligence in relation to the EU’s position and strategy known to his chief supporter in the White House.
As if coming to consensus positions were not difficult enough already, EU member states and the EU Commission face an uphill struggle to establish and press home a mutually beneficial strategy in any EU-US negotiations. Add to this the very clear indications that Trump’s regime has the weakening and destruction of the EU as an institution and an economic power as a central value, and the scale of the challenge becomes apparent.
All of this suggests that the EU must not be naive or feel under time pressure to come to early understandings with the US. On the contrary, the EU must, as a matter of self-preservation, keep its options open and remain deeply inscrutable and unflappable.
The fact that China has put in place a ban on the export of such vital materials should signal to the entire global economy that it has muscles to flex
Donald Trump’s revolting imagery of world leaders responding to his tariff threats by crawling on hands and knees to “kiss my ass” may go down well in parts of America. But it carries a heavy price throughout the rest of the world. Political leaders who engage in such abject behaviour will almost inevitably be outflanked by their domestic critics.
Europe has a huge set of choices to make.
The EU has to ask itself whether it can sustain accommodating the US in its economic strategies, particularly with the entire future of Ukraine and the military and economic viability of Nato at issue. It isn’t a matter of coming to a conclusion on all trade relations issues with the US within 90 days. Any settlement of the Ukraine war needs to be on the table at the same time. Allowing these issues to be dealt with sequentially would be an enormous blunder from the EU point of view.
If Trump really considers that China’s president Xi Jinping is going to abase himself in a humiliating climbdown with the Americans, he has a sharp awakening coming. Unencumbered by internal politics, Xi has the luxury of inscrutability, unity and the capacity to face adverse economic circumstances in the short and medium term. He also has the capacity to resist pressure in the form of sky-high tariffs.
[ Chinese exports surge ahead of Trump’s 145% tariff on goodsOpens in new window ]
Xi knows that China is an economic superpower with the capacity to exert influence right across the world, including the EU, Russia, India and the Pacific region.
Tariffs are one thing; exports are another. Global industrial output based on extended supply chains means that China, as a major producer of rare earth minerals and magnets derived from them, can hugely influence the economic viability of considerable chunks of international high-tech capacity. The fact that China has put in place a ban on the export of such vital materials should signal to the entire global economy that it has muscles to flex.
[ US to demand EU pulls away from China in return for cutting tariffsOpens in new window ]
For Europe in particular, that decision is a reminder that the US-EU relationship is not the only one in play, and that accommodating the US tariff war strategy against China is not without potential consequence.
It would be simplistic to see Europe as having to choose between a pro-US pivot at the behest of Trump, or adopting a strategy based on accommodation with China. Our choices are much more complex and difficult than that. We are faced with a cluster-dilemma of huge difficulty and consequence.
If we truly believe that Trump’s tariff war will have serious repercussions for the US economy, the question arises as to whether we need to make common cause with incoming administrations in Canada and Australia, with Japan, and with other economic powers including India. And, of course, with China by refusing to have our actions determined by Trump’s arbitrary 90-day window.
