Just under a week to go. Right about the time you are reaching for your Saturday morning Irish Times, the votes will be tumbling out of the ballot boxes on to the tables in count centres across the country, the eager fingers of count staff already beginning the sorting process, the relative size of the bundles surveyed carefully by the watching tallymen and women.
The night before, we’ll have The Irish Times/RTÉ/TG4/TCD exit poll (a mouthful, I know) whose results will point to the likely direction of travel. A few hours later, as the tallies come in, we should have a decent handle on how things are going.
Within a few days we’ll have the line-up for the next Dáil completed and – probably – an idea of whether government formation is going to be a long-drawn-out process lasting well into the new year, or a more perfunctory operation that can be done and dusted soon after – or even before? – Christmas.
Lots to be decided in the remaining seven days, though. The 2020 exit poll found that half of all voters made up their minds during the campaign; 16 per cent of all voters said they decided how to vote in the last few days before polling. A further eight per cent said they only decided on the day of the election. In other words: there’s a lot of votes still available out there. The election is still there to be won or lost.
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It feels like a consequential election – like 1977, or 1997, or 2011; an election that didn’t just change the government but set a direction for the country that was to prove significant beyond its term. The return of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael to government – themselves alone or with someone else – after their first coalition together would confirm the country on a trajectory that is very different from what the alternative offers.
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It would set the direction for a period ahead that certainly promises great opportunities, given the country’s amazingly strong public finances, but is also deeply threatening to the continued success of Ireland’s economic model.
True, the alternative of a Sinn Féin-led government of the left – or even Sinn Féin participation in a coalition at all – does not look likely at this stage, given the prevailing wind in the polls. But remember all those votes yet to be decided. Remember that pre-election predictions always have a bias towards the status quo. And bear in mind that it is clear from the campaign that many people do not believe that the much-vaunted Irish economic model works for them.
In modern politics, with levels of voter volatility unimaginable in the past, no election is a foregone conclusion. Choices are yet to be made.
It has been an unusual, unsettled campaign – with attention jumping around here and there and never really focusing on a central theme. But here are three things to look out for in the final week. I think they will, in different ways, matter a lot.
1. Any sign of an outbreak of realism? Despite the incessant banging on about it around here and elsewhere, politicians have not really set out their priorities in the gloomy alternative scenario – where global uncertainty and the Trump administration’s anti-free trade position leads to a slump in Ireland’s corporation tax receipts in the coming years.
All parties have set out their plans for spending the surpluses and the Apple cash in an orgy of lavish promises. Fine. But they have been much less willing to say where their priorities would be if they had, say, €10 billion less every year.
That is an unpleasant scenario – but hardly an impossible one. Fail to prepare, prepare to fail. The world has changed, and the US has changed, and that is going to affect us profoundly, whether we like it or not. Incidentally, we might find that pursuing the Occupied Territories Bill comes with a very large price tag attached.
2. Keep an eye on where the leaders are going – that’s where they think they are in trouble and need to shore up support, or where they think they can poach a seat. For example, Micheál Martin has been to Dublin Bay South three times since the start of the campaign – suggesting that the party thinks Jim O’Callaghan is in danger (but also that Martin wants to do all he can to help him). He’s been to Dublin South Central twice, which means their hopes for Catherine Ardagh are high.
3. Watch the debate. I think this could be one of the most influential debates since 2007, when Bertie Ahern pulled a faltering campaign out of the fire with a strong performance in the final leaders’ debate against Enda Kenny.
Discussions with a panel of Irish Times readers – interested in politics but uncommitted in voting intention – suggest that they are looking for something they haven’t yet seen in this campaign. Some of them say they see the need for change in many areas – but they are not convinced by the offers they see from the Opposition, and they are nervous about the external environment. I think that’s where lots of voters are.
My guess is that Mary Lou McDonald will come out all guns blazing in an attempt to reproduce her campaign-altering performances in 2020. Martin will try to be the adult in the room. If Simon Harris still maintains a decent lead after the weekend polls, he will have a target on his back. How will he perform under pressure? A lot could hinge on that. It will be a fierce and frantic week. Hold on to your hats.
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