Ireland is currently in the process of phasing out fossil fuels. Our usage of fossil fuels increased significantly during the 1990s and then peaked 18 years ago in 2008.
By the year 2025, our fossil fuel usage has decreased to less than three quarters of the amounts used in 2008, according to data from the Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland (SEAI).
The most striking reductions are for coal and peat, which have collectively reduced to less than 13 per cent of 2008 levels, including the total phase-out of these fuels in electricity generation.
Ireland’s usage of oil and gas has also reduced in this period, collectively by 20 per cent.
RM Block
This reduction of fossil fuel usage took place in a period where Ireland’s population grew by nearly one quarter and economic growth in 2025 was more than one and a half times what it was in 2008, according to data from the Central Statistics Office.
These are all clear signals that the energy transition away from fossil fuels is well under way in Ireland.
This is good news for three reasons – energy affordability, energy security and climate action.
Regarding energy affordability, the cost of living crisis has starkly revealed the vulnerability that we face in terms of energy bills because of our dependence on gas and oil.
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The price of gas and electricity rose dramatically following the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent decision by Russia to turn off gas supplies to Europe.
The price of petrol, diesel and kerosene (used for home heating oil and for aviation fuel) rose dramatically following the US and Israel attacks on Iran that prompted Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz.
The cost of living crisis would have been even more severe in Ireland had we not achieved the reduced dependence on oil and gas that we did over the past 18 years.
There are two distinct key dimensions of energy security – physical energy supply risk and energy price risk. Reducing our dependence on oil and gas has helped with both over the past 18 years. This indicates that the cost of living crisis could have been worse than it has been.
Our continued high dependence on oil and gas, however, means that Ireland’s economy and society are currently vulnerable to decisions made in the Kremlin, the White House, the Knesset and Tehran.
Regarding climate action, Ireland made significant progress in bolstering the governance framework for greenhouse gas emissions reduction and surpassed my own estimates, in that we remained within the first carbon budget for the period 2021-2025 and five of the seven sectoral emissions ceilings.
While all of this is very positive, the future remains uncertain as we do not yet have a target time frame in Ireland for fully phasing out fossil fuels.
Despite achieving a peak in fossil fuel usage in 2008 and 28 per cent reductions since then, Ireland remains one of the most fossil fuel dependent countries in the European Union, with oil accounting for nearly half of all our energy use and gas a further 30 per cent.
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Renewable energy has grown significantly, but from a small base and contributes just 16 per cent of our overall energy usage. While the energy transition is well under way, the size of the task ahead remains large, which is not good news for energy affordability, for energy security, or for climate action. But we do know from experience how to effect change.
We set targets and implemented plans for wind energy and solar energy growth, for increasing the number of electric vehicles on our roads, for reducing the wasteful energy leakage in our buildings and the installation of heat pumps, and these have been really effective in driving momentum and achieving results.
Most of the progress in renewable energy growth has been achieved in electricity generation, with a significant milestone passed last year when more of Ireland’s electricity was produced from renewable energy than from gas.
This is the first time that electricity generation from gas has not dominated the fuel mix in Ireland since gas-fired generation surpassed electricity from coal in the early 2000s. We also had clear plans for the phasing out of peat-fired electricity power plants and more recently coal and these also proved effective in delivering results.
Our pathway to energy security and energy affordability can be bolstered by a targeted strategy, time frame and plan to phase out fossil fuels in Ireland, which has been correctly identified as a missing link in Ireland’s energy policy.
Energy systems modelling research at University College Cork’s (UCC) Sustainability Institute has produced evidence that can usefully inform and underpin a national fossil fuel phase-out strategy.
This analysis comprises future possible scenarios or pathways for the evolution of Ireland’s energy system in the period from 2025 to 2050.
The results of this research were used by Ireland’s Climate Change Advisory Council to quantify and propose Ireland’s third carbon budget to Minister Darragh O’Brien, with the purpose of complying with national and international statutory obligations on greenhouse gas emissions reduction.
While the key initial driver for this analysis at UCC was on supporting climate policy, it has clear implications also for energy security, energy affordability and sheds light on possible fossil fuel phase-out pathways.
The graph shows the historical trend in our energy fuel mix using SEAI data and a possible future pathway based on UCC analysis, in which fossil fuels are phased out by 2045, just less than 20 years from now. Note that this projection does not include international aviation or shipping transport.
Establishing an agreed time frame and framework for fossil fuel phase-out requires firstly societal and political will to do so and secondly an analysis of how we transition away from oil and gas with a focus on where each is used.
Reducing the share of our energy use from fossil fuels is important but not enough, as we need to reduce to zero the amount of fossil fuels that we use.
In Ireland, oil is primarily used in our cars, homes and trucks. Switching to electric vehicles is under way and has accelerated recently due to the recent price hikes at the petrol and diesel pumps but when will we decide to stop selling or buying of petrol and diesel cars, vans and trucks and have the capacity to stop driving them?
Switching from kerosene boilers to heat-pumps in our homes is also under way, but when will we have the capacity to stop selling or selling and buying oil boilers, and to stop using them?
Gas is primarily used in our electricity power plants, in our factories, homes and offices. Increasing the amount of electricity that we generate from wind and solar energy is also under way, but when will we cease burning gas for electricity generation, as we have done for coal and peat?
Retrofitting our buildings and switching to electric heat-pumps and renewable fuels is reducing the amount of gas we are using to heat our buildings, but when will we stop using gas altogether?
Balancing the policy measures required is and will be politically and societally challenging, needing regulatory bans for fossil fuel engines alongside existing incentivisation schemes for the alternatives.
In addition, the pressures to grow energy demand (including data centre growth and removing airport passenger caps) at a time when we use such high amounts of fossil fuels make the measures required more challenging and lengthen our energy insecurity and energy unaffordability.
The prize for Ireland’s society and economy of delivering energy security and energy affordability is very attractive. Do we have the will to secure it?
Prof. Brian Ó Gallachóír is Director of the Sustainability Institute at University College Cork.
