Two important reports on Ireland’s demographics have recently landed. Both contribute to our understanding of current and future challenges. But, for different reasons, neither provides complete foresight.
The Central Statistics Office’s (CSO) population and migration estimates contain rich information on the fundamentals of Irish society. Demographic growth is critical to any economy’s potential.
Generally, more people means a larger workforce, greater innovation and more consumers to buy goods and services. But a rising headcount also presents social challenges, most obviously in providing adequate housing, transport, water and energy infrastructure.
The latest estimates show that Ireland’s population rose by 78,300 people in the 12 months to April 2025 – a 1.5 percent increase. Three things about this stand out.
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First, it represents a strong rate of growth by European standards. Only three other EU countries experienced headcount expansion of more than 1.5 percent last year; Malta (3.9 percent), Cyprus (1.8 percent) and Luxembourg (1.7 percent). In contrast, seven countries experienced an outright contraction, and most member states registered growth of less than 0.5 percent.
Somewhat qualifying this, a second notable is that current population growth is unexceptional by historical standards.
Ireland’s headcount grew much more quickly from 2002-2008, and faster growth was also experienced throughout the 1970s and in the late 2010s.
Third, population growth is moderating. Since peaking at 2.15 percent annually in 2022, it has now slowed in each of the past three years.
The new estimates also provide critical detail on the composition of Ireland’s demographic growth. The weighting of births, deaths and net migration ultimately determines the age structure of society.
This drives the demand for social services like education, health, long-term care and pensions. But it also dictates our ability to fund these services as it determines the dependency ratio (the ratio of retired to working age people).
As recently as 2014, Ireland’s population growth was entirely driven by the natural increase – the excess of births over deaths. However, the natural increase has halved since then, and currently stands at a 30-year low.
Consequently, net migration, the most unpredictable element of population growth, is now also the largest, accounting for three quarters of this year’s total.
Informative as they are, the CSO estimates are backward-looking. Therefore, a new forward-facing report from the Department of Finance is welcome reading.
Called Future Forty: Ireland’s Demographic Outlook Trends and Scenarios for the Next Forty Years, is a comprehensive and well-researched treatise on the task of predicting Ireland’s long term demographic future.
It identifies global trends, such as the increased movement of people to escape conflict and the emergence of climate migration, as factors that are making this exercise more challenging.
Political approaches to migration are also in flux, with ageing societies potentially considering immigration as a means of kick-starting their sluggish economies.
While this research deepens our understanding, it stops short of providing explicit demographic forecasts.
Instead, it elaborates nine scenarios predicated on different fertility and migration assumptions. These incorporate population projections which range from below six million to almost eight million people by 2056. Moreover, no probabilities are assigned to these scenarios – they are merely presented as illustrations of possible outcomes.
So, what can policymakers take from these reports?
Before Budget 2026, many bodies will be lobbying for increased Government funding on the basis of strong population growth which is implied to be long-lasting.
The CSO data show that today’s expansion rate is not exceptional by historical standards, and that it is slowing.
Secondly, policymakers can take confidence that demographic growth will ease further over the remainder of this Government’s life. Births have plummeted in the past 15 years for two reasons.
First, the number of women in the prime childbearing age group has contracted by 52,000 since peak.
Second, the women in this cohort are having fewer children. The number of 20-39 aged women bottomed-out in 2021, and it is now creeping up again.
Because of strong births through the late 1990s and 2000s, this should continue. All else equal, this would support a recovery in births. However, the shift to later family formation and smaller family sizes remains firmly established, and this will do the opposite.
The average age of first-time mothers has risen from 29.3 to 31.7 years since 2010, while the fertility rate has dropped from 2.1 to 1.5 children per woman.
Compounding the fall in births, the natural increase has been dampened by rising deaths in recent years. Despite medical advances and healthier lifestyles, the absolute number of deaths is rising because of an increased number of people aged over 65.
Department of Finance scenarios suggest this will continue. Taking everything in the round, therefore, the most we can expect is a modest recovery in the natural increase.
Net migration is clearly trickier to call – particularly over long horizons. Patterns in the historical data actually facilitate short-run forecasting. Ireland has experienced a wide range of net migration outcomes over the past 75 years, but migration cannot be described as volatile.
There is a clear pattern to it, with periods of high and low migration coming in waves. This serial correlation makes recent migration numbers useful for predicting future values.
Net migration steadily ramped up from 6,000 to 78,000 between 2015-2023. It then plateaued before dropping to 60,000 in 2025.
Considering past trends, and other factors like changes to the temporary protection supports, my read is that net migration has probably peaked and will continue ease in the medium term.
With no vigorous rebound in the natural increase, and with migration remaining the main driver, this suggests the ongoing moderation in overall population growth is likely to continue.
Dr John McCartney is a lecturer at TU Dublin and Adjunct Associate Professor at UCD
