Almost one in five consumers in the Republic say they are looking to either rent or buy a property, the second highest rate in Europe, according to Banking and Payments Federation Ireland (BPFI).
In its latest housing market monitor, the banking lobby group mined data from the European Central Bank’s (ECB) consumer expectations survey for February, showing a high level of latent or unmet demand for housing in the Irish market.
The BPFI said demand for housing continues to rise, with 17 per cent of consumers reporting that they were looking to rent or buy, the second highest rate in Europe after the Netherlands (20.9 per cent).
Among those renting, more than a quarter (26.3 per cent) were looking for accommodation, while one in five of those with a mortgage were actively looking for new housing.
Childcare in Ireland: ‘Even as well-paid professionals, it was an exhausting struggle. The numbers never added up’
Smooth Company’s Áine Kennedy: ‘My screen time is outrageous. I don’t have a work-life balance at the moment’
Semi-state CEOs: What do they earn and should they be paid more?
Pay, perks and CEO prerogatives
“The strong demand for housing especially among first-time buyers [FTBs] is also evident in the fact that 17,144 applications were received by the Revenue Commissioners for Help to Buy in the first four months of this year, almost 5,000 more than in the same period of 2024,” said BPFI chief executive Brian Hayes.
However, Mr Hayes noted that on the supply side, only one in 10 (10.5 per cent) owner occupiers said they were rather likely or very likely to sell.
Will rent reform make building apartments viable?
“We expect to see housing demand continue, mainly driven by demographic trends and mortgage demand, especially by FTBs due to the more positive outlook on incomes, with gross average earnings now surpassing €1,000 per week for the first time since the CSO [Central Statistics Office] data series began in 20088,” said Mr Hayes.
“On the supply side, however, there is significant uncertainty in terms of housing output in the medium term.”
In its report, the BPFI noted that while the State is experiencing employment and population growth, the supply of housing has fallen behind.
It noted that almost 6,000 new dwellings were completed in the first quarter, 2 per cent up on the same period last year. In annualised terms, there were 30,356 housing completions in the 12 months ending in March 2025.
The Government’s Housing for All output target is for the construction of 41,000 new homes in 2025, but given that overall completions fell back to 30,000 last year, few analysts expect this target to be achieved.
“We know that Ireland’s population increased by around 735,000 people between 2014 and 2024 while in the same period, employment increased by nearly 739,000,” said Mr Hayes.
“Meanwhile, housing completions in Ireland declined in 2024 for the first time since 2013, excluding the period between 2020 and 2021, when the pandemic affected activity significantly,” he said.
The BPFI also highlighted a worrying drop-off in housing commencements, the strongest indicator of future supply.
After a significant rise in commencements in 2004, to just over 69,000 units mainly due to waivers on development levy and water connections charges, the BPFI’s report said commencement numbers for the first four months of 2025 are “discouraging” at 3,945 units, around 40 per cent of the levels observed in 2023 and similar to levels seen in 2016.
The BPFI also noted that 73,626 units were granted permission in 2023 and 2024 in total, “which is not encouraging for future years’ potential housing output”.
Planning permissions declined by more than 21 per cent between 2023 and 2024, with permissions issued for apartments dropping by more than 38 per cent during the period.
In terms of mortgage activity, the BPFI noted there were 9,190 mortgage drawdowns in the first quarter of 2025 valued at €2.8 billion, an increase of 10 per cent in volume terms.
