The housing crisis, the cost of living and challenges within our health system will all be undeniable priorities for the parties forming the new government.
Energy is also on the priority list. However, energy stands apart because while it poses a challenge today, energy offers unique and unparalleled potential for the future.
The reason is simple; Ireland has the biggest offshore wind resource in Europe, some 70 gigawatts (GW), enough to power 70 million homes, in a marine area seven times our land mass, presenting perhaps the greatest opportunity in the history of the State.
Recognising this, the outgoing Government laid the groundwork for offshore wind development, targeting 5GW of established fixed-bottom offshore wind technology by 2030.
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However, regulatory delays and insufficient long-term planning threaten immediate climate goals and Ireland’s vision of becoming an offshore wind powerhouse by 2050. Moreover, it leaves us at risk of up to €20 billion in fines for failing to meet our 2030 climate targets. The opportunity is now becoming a problem.
The good news, thankfully, is that a steady roll-out of offshore projects can still be achieved, delivering energy independence, creating thousands of quality green jobs in coastal communities and regional hinterlands, and transitioning Ireland to a low-carbon economy.
The late Eddie O’Connor’s vision for that 70GW of offshore wind, exemplifies the potential to turn Ireland’s windy Atlantic coast into a further economic advantage.
Because it can be developed sustainably at scale, floating offshore wind technology is the key to the future envisaged by O’Connor. However, the strategy to date has been to focus on delivering fixed-bottom projects initially in the shallower waters of the east and the south coast, with floating projects to follow off the west coast from 2030 onwards.
However, to have any hope of deploying floating projects in the 2030s, a concrete plan needs to be in place today. That’s something that outgoing energy minister Eamon Ryan did not deliver. He cited concerns about the readiness of floating wind as an emerging technology, along with harsh marine conditions and cost.
Floating offshore wind technology is developed, tested and ready for commercial deployment. The technology has been operating in harsh marine environments since 2017. Demonstration projects in Scotland, Norway and Portugal have proven viability even in severe conditions, thanks to advancements in materials, anchoring systems, dynamic cabling, process design and specialised vessels such as service operations vessels.
Weather windows for installation, operations and maintenance are undoubtedly a challenge for floating offshore wind projects off Ireland’s Atlantic coast, but these are not show-stoppers and risks can be managed with technological solutions. There is also an upside; the windier conditions mean enhanced capacity factors.
A more relevant issue is the higher cost of marine operations in these conditions; operations and maintenance can be up to 40 per cent of a project bill. Cost reduction solutions are achievable with innovations such as autonomous monitoring, and predictive maintenance and scheduling – in other words, the ICT stuff that Ireland Inc is good at.
And while costs for floating are relatively high today, they will come down with industrial levels of deployment.
Research published in 2024 by UCC estimates a levelised cost of energy (LCOE) of €52 – €65MWh for a 1GW floating wind farm commissioned in 2035 off the southwest coast. This will rival or outperform fossil fuels, especially with carbon pricing.
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The main barriers to cost-effective commercial deployment, requiring exchequer support, are port and grid investment. But the upfront capital investment is a drop in the ocean compared to the private sector capital it will unlock and the jobs created.
We need to see more ambition and vision from government. In recent months, policymakers have been grappling with the question of a demonstration project, which is a positive sign. However, by the mid-2030s, other countries including the UK, France, Portugal, Spain, Norway, Italy and Greece are expected to be operating commercial-scale floating projects (circa 1GW).
We may have missed the boat on technology demonstration but we can be “fast followers”. The smart approach would be to get going on scalable commercial projects now (400MW scaling to 1GW+) to unlock the power of the Atlantic Ocean.
We are not starting from scratch: Ireland can leverage lessons from early adopters such as the UK and France. The UK already has operational pilots, along with demonstrator and commercial-scale projects under development, a pipeline of 25GW awarded and the next seabed auction scheduled in the Celtic Sea in early 2025.
In 2022 the French government pledged to award nearly 2GW of capacity annually, tied to €40 billion in investment over 15 years, while targeting 50 per cent French content.
So, our new government faces a pivotal moment as we transition to the fifth industrial revolution. We are in the “decisive decade” for climate action, where halving emissions by 2030 is critical to reaching net zero.
Decisions taken now will shape Ireland’s prosperity for decades in a way that balances the national economy. There is no basis for further procrastination. The government must act urgently to position Ireland as a “fast follower” and a global leader in floating offshore wind.
Dr Val Cummins is chief impact officer with the Simply Blue Group
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