How should I plan my night?
Have a nap first. Nothing of note will happen before midnight Irish time on Tuesday. Polls start closing from 11pm Irish time, with the first states with competitive contests closing in the hour after midnight. Early indications of what the results could be will come from a combination of exit polls and early returns from some areas. But keep an eye on the expert analysts on the TV election desks. They’ll be looking at those early results for indications of patterns that may play out throughout the night.
After that there are a number of variables. The sheer size of the US, spanning several time zones, means polls close gradually across the country, starting in the more eastern states and moving gradually across the midwest, the Great Plains and the Rockies to the Pacific coastline and then on finally to Alaska and Hawaii. Some states also span more than one time zone, so closing times can also vary within state.
How fast are the results?
It varies a lot. Each state has its own voting laws, including on when voting stops and counting begins. Some states, such as Florida, count fast. Others, like Pennsylvania, are much slower.
How should I understand what’s going on?
It can be misleading. In 2020, according to the Pew Research Centre, about 46 per cent of people voted by absentee or postal ballot. This year that is projected to be over half of all voters. In some states, postal ballots can be opened and checked in advance, but in others that process can only begin on voting day. That means early results can over-represent certain types of voter. In 2020, they often over-represented Republicans, as Democrats were more likely to mail their votes during the Covid-19 pandemic. This time, the Republican Party has been urging its supporters to mail in their votes too, although it remains to be seen if they have taken that advice. So depending on the sequence in which votes are counted this time, there is a chance in some states of a “red mirage” or a “blue mirage” where one candidate appears to be well ahead at first, only to be overtaken later.
Another potential distortion early in the count is that rural districts tend to count faster due to their smaller populations. Since those areas are generally more Republican, that can give a misleading impression of what’s happening until results start coming in from the bigger cities, which are mostly more Democratic.
When will it all be over?
If the polls are correct, it could take days to decide the next president, as was the case in 2020. However, it is also possible that if North Carolina, Georgia and the “blue wall” states are trending in the same direction, the result could be obvious before 4am.
Where is best to watch?
You can follow the results on irishtimes.com, RTÉ, BBC and Sky News. There’ll also be rolling coverage on the New York Times and Washington Post. But election night is still the preserve of the traditional TV networks, ABC, CBS and NBC, and the cable news channels CNN, Fox News and CNBC. Most of these will be streaming online from their own websites or via YouTube. In 2020 CNN’s John King became a household name in Ireland and he’ll be back with his Magic Wall to break down the results.
Timetable - when polls close
Letters in brackets indicate where different time zones within a state lead to two different poll closing times within that state. E=Eastern, C=Central, M=Mountain, P=Pacific, A=Alaska, H=Hawaii-Aleutian.
11pm Indiana (E) Kentucky (E)
Two reliably Republican states. Expect no surprises.
Midnight Florida (E), Georgia, Indiana (C), Kentucky (C), South Carolina, Virginia, Vermont
The first swing state of the night, Georgia tabulates postal ballots from early on election day. As these tend to favour Democrats, we could see a “blue mirage” early on, with Republicans catching up later as in-person ballots are counted.
With its 30 electoral college votes, Florida used to be the ultimate swing state prize. It’s now presumed to be firmly in the Republican camp but is still worth watching for signs of trends that could matter later in the night – for example whether the Hispanic swing towards Donald Trump is continuing. Florida also counts votes faster than most states. In 2020, 90 per cent of votes had been counted by 2am Irish time.
[ US election explained: How does the electoral college work?Opens in new window ]
12.30am North Carolina, Ohio, West Virginia
The second of the seven swing states to complete its voting, North Carolina has a track record of counting votes relatively quickly. This year, the count could be slowed in some areas due to the aftermath of Hurricane Helene.
1am Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida (C), Illinois, Kansas (C), Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan (E), Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, North Dakota (C), Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Dakota (C), Tennessee, Texas (C), Washington, DC
Pennsylvania is seen by many as the pivotal swing state, the one most likely to decide who wins the presidency. However, don’t expect a quick result; the state’s laws on when postal ballots can be processed mean the final verdict – if the race is as tight as predicted – could be several days in coming, as it was in 2020.
The eastern part of the second “rust belt” swing state, Michigan, also closes at this time. It was also slow in 2020, although officials believe a new law will help them speed up matters this time.
1.30am Arkansas
Solid Republican
2am Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Kansas (M), Louisiana, Michigan (C), Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota (M), South Dakota (M), Texas (M), Wisconsin, Wyoming.
In Wisconsin, the last of the “rust belt” swing states, the big Democratic areas of Milwaukee and Dane County are typically slower to announce results, so expect an early Republican surge followed by a blue wave – which may or may not prevail.
In the south-western swing state of Arizona, votes posted before election day are swiftly tabulated, as are in-person votes. But postal ballots dropped off on election day – almost a quarter of the total in parts of the state in 2020 – can be much slower.
3am Idaho (M), Montana, Nevada, Oregon (M), Utah
The last of the swing states to finish voting, Nevada is also the smallest in terms of its number of electoral votes. It could be well into Wednesday before there’s any sense of what way the vote is going there.
4am California, Idaho (P), Oregon (P), Washington
Idaho will vote Republican and the three Pacific coast states will go Democrat.
5am Alaska (A), Hawaii
Alaska votes Republican while Hawaii is Democratic.
6am Alaska (H)
The final (strongly Republican) part of the country to stop voting.
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