Britain’s prime minister Keir Starmer next week faces the biggest test of his authority since winning last July’s election, as his government tries to steer through deep cuts to disability benefits in the face of a growing backbench rebellion.
MPs are due to vote next Tuesday on a Bill to save £5 billion (€5.86 billion) by cutting eligibility for personal independence payments (Pip), which are top-up benefits for disabled people. More than 120 Labour rebels, however, have put forward an amendment that would kill the Bill.
If the Labour rebels vote against the Bill next week and all the main opposition parties also vote against the government’s proposals, Starmer faces the prospect of a humiliating defeat in the House of Commons, despite Labour’s 165-seat majority.
That would seriously weaken his standing as leader of party and country. Senior Labour figures have been frantically trying to win rebels around in recent days. The Irish Times has seen messages sent by senior Labour figures to some of the rebels, criticising them for undermining the government.
Downing Street argues that ballooning Pip payments act as a disincentive for some people to work, and says the “moral and progressive” thing to do is to reform the system. The overall cost of Pip has doubled since the pandemic, while the UK’s overall disability and sickness benefits bill has risen by £20 billion to £80 billion.
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Starmer, who was in The Hague on Wednesday at a summit of the Nato military alliance, said up to 1,000 new people per day were moving on to Pip, the equivalent of the population of the city of Leicester over a year.
“It traps people and it has to be reformed,” he said.
The issue has forced a showdown with the left wing of his party, as well as other more centrist MPs who fear the loss of Pip payments will hurt their constituents. The government’s impact assessment acknowledges the changes would push 250,000 people into relative poverty.
The rebels have put forward a “reasoned amendment” to the Bill that would effectively end it at second reading on Tuesday, a blunt tactic. Its deployment is being seen as a sign of the government’s dislocation from MPs who represent Labour’s working class heartlands, as well as political naivety in Starmer’s Downing Street operation.
The amendment, which would have to be called by the speaker Lindsay Hoyle on Tuesday, has been signed by more than 120 MPs, including about 13 committee chairs.
“The government needs to think again,” said Anneliese Midgley, the MP for Knowsley in Merseyside and a leading rebel. She was previously deputy chief of staff for former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn.
“The proposals are rushed. They will financially penalise disabled people and risk pushing some people away from work,” she said.
Other rebels include Louise Haigh, the former transport secretary who was forced to resign by Downing Street last November over an old conviction.
But as well as left-wing standard bearers not close to Starmer, such as John McDonnell and Diane Abbott, the list also includes younger, ambitious MPs not expected to rebel, such as Adam Jogee. Meg Hillier, chair of the Treasury select committee, is one of the leaders of the rebel group.
Downing Street now faces the choice of pulling next Tuesday’s vote, which so far it has insisted it will not do, or negotiating with the rebels to water down the original proposals to restrict Pip.
Alternatively, Starmer could try the politically risky move of calling the rebels’ bluff, or the government could even try to win the vote with backing from the opposition – another politically unpalatable prospect.
